It is rare that the international shippers offer the best chance at value in North America turf races, but that opportunity appears to be fermenting in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby on Saturday at Saratoga.
The second Grade 1 race of the Saratoga summer meeting and the 3-year-old male complement to the Belmont Oaks (G1) earlier on the opening Saturday card attracted a competitive field of 10. Ireland-bred Pacific Avenue and Great Britian-bred Title Role shipped West to take on eight domestic turf stars led by Grade 3 winner and 3-1 morning-line favorite West End Kid.
Click here for Saratoga entries and results.
Pacific Avenue is the fifth choice on the morning line, but I see him as the most likely winner. I’m not sure we’ll get anywhere near the 6-1 come post time, so prudently using this horse (and co-third choice Title Role) in multi-race wagers could be the best way to capitalize should either of the European shippers win.
One interesting thing about both horses is that this is their first starts beyond one mile, and of course the European pedigrees of both give no pause on either handling the 1 1/8-mile distance.
There is pause with West End Kid, however, as being by Twirling Candy out of a Scat Daddy mare makes me think 1 1/8 miles will test his limits after three consecutive victories at 1 1/16 miles. But those were against nowhere near the competition I expect Pacific Avenue or Title Role to offer, so I’ll let West End Kid beat me.