After more than 100 matches, 46 teams have fallen by the wayside and the World Cup final is set. Sunday’s showcase pits Spain with its possession-dominant style and impenetrable defense against Argentina’s sheer force of will and its legendary star.
Spain enters the match as the clear betting favorite, and it’s hard to argue with that after the way La Roja beat France in Tuesday’s semifinal. The 2-0 win wasn’t just a victory, it was a comprehensive domination of a French team that had looked like the best team all tournament … until it clearly wasn’t.
At Kalshi, Spain is currently the favorite, listed at 58 percent to win it all. On DraftKings, Spain has -178 odds of lifting the cup on Sunday. Argentina currently sits at +154. While this is still a somewhat competitive number, it is more lopsided than either semifinal. These odds give Spain a better than 60 percent chance of winning the World Cup.
For what it’s worth, The Athletic’s forecast tool gives Spain a 59 percent chance to win the tournament,
Both teams are plus-money to win in regular time, and under 2.5 goals is clearly favored. Both teams to score inside 90 minutes is virtually a coin flip.
One fun stat worth knowing: Spain has the extra day of rest, and the team with the extra day of rest heading into a final has won 13 of the last 14 major tournaments.
FIFA to extend half-time for World Cup final | World Cup Daily Briefing
Megan Feringa and Luke Bosher
Spain vs. Argentina
Time: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
Spain vs. France was the immovable object (Spain) against the unstoppable force (France), and the immovable object was barely touched. This final is the immovable object against the unkillable force.
In some ways, it’s difficult to see either team losing. It seems nearly impossible to score on Spain. La Roja have given up just one goal all tournament and completely took France off its game in a way that nearly no one was predicting.
On the other side, Argentina seems like the villain (or hero depending on your perspective) that simply won’t die. La Albiceleste continue to dig themselves into holes and find a way out. It’s like clockwork.
The logical side, which is the way the odds are going, says Spain has been the more impressive team throughout. But the emotional side may have a hard time denying the “team of destiny” vibes that Argentina embodies.
Spain got here with a dominant display against France, but the key will be following it up. If La Roja do so, they will make history in multiple ways. Beyond just winning the country’s second World Cup, they could break an international record.
Luis de la Fuente’s men have gone 37 matches unbeaten, matching a record set by Italy from 2018-2021. A win in the final would give Spain the record all to itself. Spain’s last loss was to Colombia in a friendly on March 22, 2024. The last loss in a competitive match was to Scotland on March 28, 2023, in a Euro 2024 qualifier. That was de la Fuente’s second match in charge. Spain went on to win Euro 2024 and is now in the World Cup final.
Spain’s run under de la Fuente has been remarkable. He took over after a disappointing 2022 World Cup and has rebuilt La Roja to resemble the success of the group that won Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012.
So far in this World Cup, Spain has conceded only one goal and has never trailed. France had never trailed before the semifinal and then didn’t manage a shot on target until the 82nd minute. The team looks like a perfectly operating machine with midfielder Rodri playing at his Ballon d’Or-winning best against France.
Here’s another scary thought: Spain has been in control without getting the best out of Lamine Yamal.
Argentina had its own impressive unbeaten run from 2019-2022, spanning 36 matches. Many of the same players from that 2022 World Cup triumph are still on Argentina this time around, of course, including Lionel Messi.
Messi has been his magical self throughout the tournament thus far. While he didn’t score in the 2-1 comeback win against England, he did have both assists, which put him atop the Golden Boot race. Messi and France’s Kylian Mbappé both have eight goals. Messi has four assists to Mbappé’s three, so he enters the final weekend in front and as the clear favorite to win the Golden Boot for the first time (-250 on FanDuel, 66 percent on Kalshi).
La Albiceleste scored in the 85th and 92nd minutes to knock off England in another dramatic match. In the four knockout matches to get to the final, Argentina has played extra time in two and made adrenaline-pumping comebacks in the other two.
If Argentina wins a second straight World Cup, Messi’s somehow still growing legacy will get another significant chapter. No one has defended a World Cup title since Brazil in 1962.