Rising battlefield losses and fuel shortages are fueling social unrest inside Russia, prompting officials to consider tougher measures to suppress dissent and protect regime stability.
The increase in Russia’s losses on the front over the past week and the fuel shortage, caused by Ukrainian strikes on the oil infrastructure, are pushing the Russian authorities to tighten control over society in order to suppress discontent.
This was stated by Ants Kiiviselg, the head of the Defence Forces’ Intelligence Center, during a weekly briefing at the Estonian Ministry of Defense.
The Russian authorities are trying to present such attacks, as well as the fuel shortage and the crisis they have caused, as a temporary phenomenon that will pass quickly. However, it should be noted that the losses inflicted by Ukraine are actually of a large scale, and their consequences will persist for quite a long time.
– Ants Kiiviselg
Socio-political Consequences and Dynamics of Hostilities
Kiiviselg emphasized the growing social tension in Russian society and the noticeable decline in support for the country’s leader Vladimir Putin among the population. In his assessment, these trends are likely to influence the course of the elections to the State Duma scheduled for September.
According to the analyst, the vertical of power, whose legitimacy is increasingly constrained, may employ ever more totalitarian and repressive methods to maintain control over society.
According to intelligence, the dynamics of hostilities indicate some changes on the front: last week, on average, 270 attacks per day were recorded, while this week there were 262 clashes per day. Also noted is an increase in casualties among Russian servicemen: from about 1,100 killed and wounded per day last week to about 1,400 per day this week.
According to Kiiviselg, Ukrainian actions in the Black and Azov Seas have significantly increased risks for Russian forces. In the Azov Sea, about 150 vessels have been struck in the last two weeks, making the area almost unusable for Russian forces; in Crimea, consequences are also expected in the coming weeks.
In the context of the energy crisis, it is noted that the diesel fuel shortage threatens the agricultural sector and the livelihoods of small farms.
After Russia’s parliamentary elections, mobilization is not ruled out, but this depends on internal political dynamics, Zelensky noted.
Estonian intelligence believes that Ukraine has significantly increased risks for Russian forces, particularly in the Black Sea, which could lead to further changes in Russia’s domestic policy and its local-level strategy in the coming weeks.
Overall, Estonia’s intelligence notes that combat activity with current rising losses and energy disruptions intensifies internal pressure on Russia’s regime and could lead to further changes in the country’s domestic policy in the coming weeks.
Within the experts’ conclusions, they emphasize that the data indicate growing social tension and declining trust in the authorities, which could affect Russia’s political stability over the course of the year.