In February 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated his unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he was betting on a feeble response from the West. Nearly four and a half years later, Putin continues to hope the West’s support will ultimately dwindle, allowing him to finally succeed in his special military operation in Ukraine. Unfortunately, the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey on July 7-8, 2026 may prove otherwise.
The two-day conference in Turkey’s capital produced a powerful display of unity on the critical issue of continued support for Ukraine’s war effort. This was achieved despite high-level tensions between US President Donald Trump and other NATO leaders of state on hot issues like Greenland, Europe’s security and the US-Israel conflict with Iran. The support included major funding commitments totaling billions of dollars for 2026 and 2027, and official acknowledgment of Ukraine’s transition from aid beneficiary to transatlantic security contributor.
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Perhaps the most relevant feature of the summit was the attitude change from Trump regarding Ukraine. Frequently critical or derisive of Ukraine in the past, Trump described his relationship with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “very good”, recognized Ukraine’s recent military advancements and praise the country’s future outlook.
Most importantly, Trump agrees to grant Kyiv a license to produce interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense system. While any joint-production agreement will require some time to execute, this was nonetheless an enormous boon for Ukraine’s long-term security.
While Kyiv has made significant progress since 2022 in defending itself against Russian missile and drone attacks, the country remains extremely vulnerable to ballistic missile strikes. The Patriot system is the only method currently capable of intercepting Russia’s ballistic missiles. Ukraine is also running out of ammunition in the midst of a declining global supply.
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Moscow seeks to capitalize on this shortage with ballistic missile strikes in early July killing dozens of Ukrainian civilians including children, and wounding hundreds more. A license to produce interceptors in Ukraine would help eliminate some of the ballistic threat to the civilian population and combat what Zelenskyy says is Russia’s “last remaining argument in this war.”
Trump’s endorsing perspective toward Ukraine arrives at a time when global awareness is sensing the fortunes of war turning in Ukraine’s favor. In the first six months of 2026, Russia’s military has struggled to advance and in reality has lost ground in certain sections of the frontlines. Swiftly developing Ukrainian drone warfare proficiencies have imposed a logistics lockdown on Russian-occupied Crimea and successfully bombarded military and industrial targets inside Russia.
Ukraine’s creative utilization of drones has ignited a surging fuel crisis across the Russian Federation that has brought the war front and center to the Russian people for the first time. This is eroding Putin’s persistent attempts to guard the Russian population from the negative impact of invading Ukraine. It has also unmasked Putin’s swagger predicting certain Russian victory.
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Several specific incidents in the past few months have underlined Putin’s deteriorating position. In early March he was forced to significantly limit Russia’s annual Victory Day festivities in Moscow and actually ask Trump’s help to broker a temporary ceasefire for his military parade, which has always been a projection of strength by the Kremlin. Zelenskyy added to Putin’s misery by issuing a parody presidential decree allowing the parade to proceed.
In June, Ukraine marked the start of Putin’s flagship St. Petersburg International Economic Forum by bombing the city’s naval base and oil terminal, leaving the city’s skies puffing black smoke while foreign dignitaries arrived at the forum venue. A few weeks later, Moscow itself was bombarded by Ukraine, including several loud strikes on the Russian capital’s oil refinery.
These attacks have helped alter the perception of the war inside Russia and among the outside world. Putin’s inability to defend high-priority targets in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Russian-occupied Crimea, along with the country’s all-important energy industry infrastructure have many beginning to think his persistent talk of victory is delusional.
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The unity shown in Ankara will only stimulate additional doubts over Moscow’s capacity to end the conflict favorably. Putin and his Kremlin oligarchs have confidently anticipated a crumbling of Western assistance for Ukraine. Many in Moscow thought Donald Trump’s return to the White House would begin this course of action. Subsequently, Europe has increased its support while recognizing that Ukraine’s advanced military capabilities will play a key role in the future of the continent’s security.
The Kremlin’s answer to the NATO summit was predictably harsh with their Foreign Ministry denouncing NATO for “irresponsible decisions that could lead to a catastrophe for the whole world.” This bombastic rhetoric echoes an inherent feeling of frustration in Russia over the failure to segregate Ukraine from the West. Moscow continues to stand firm that it will meet the goals of their invasion. They do not realize that with Western leaders standing with Ukraine, Russia has no clear route to win the war.
Ihor N. Stelmach is a former principal and history teacher at St. Michael’s Ukrainian Parochial School in Hartford.