Opinion: NATO Membership Now Irrelevant for Ukraine?

It was refreshing this week to hear Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the current Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK, and former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, bluntly argue that Ukraine will never join NATO.

Zaluzhnyi argued that NATO membership was no longer relevant for Ukraine, as Ukraine has moved on in terms of defense capability, whereas NATO has stood still and brought little to the table for Ukraine. Zaluzhnyi argued that whereas Ukraine has created a fighting force for the future, with drones and technology center stage, and is setting the boundaries of modern warfare through its defense against Russia’s war in Ukraine, NATO still, in mindset (and capability), is fighting wars more similar to WWII.

European NATO, if anything, is struggling to be relevant, and what is more interesting for Ukraine now are bilateral military agreements with individual states with particular capabilities  – the U.K., Türkiye, Finland, Poland, etc. al.

He has a point here in that at this stage, with European NATO likely struggling even to defend themselves against a potential Russian attack, what would they, as part of a NATO expansion to Ukraine, bring to Ukraine’s defense?

As has long been clear, Ukraine is central now to the defense of European NATO, and not the other way around. Ukraine now has a far more advanced military capability forged out of war, necessity, innovation and bravery, and is the front line for Europe in its defense against Russian aggression. Europe brings much less, aside perhaps from finance, to the table in terms of helping Ukraine in its defense.

So many ironies to draw on here:

First, for a decade or more, many had seen NATO expansion as the key to Ukraine’s defense, and ending the war begun in 2014 by Russia. That with the expansion of NATO’s defensive umbrella, Russia would halt its aggression against Ukraine for fear of risking a direct war with NATO.

That NATO expansion did not happen; Russia invaded and forced Ukraine to look to self-sufficiency. It forced Ukraine to build its own defense and not wait around for NATO membership.

That development has been so successful that now European NATO countries understand that, given their own vulnerabilities – the threat from Russia and with the US MIA in terms of the defense of Europe – their own future defense, at least through the medium term, is dependent on Ukraine, and Ukraine holding out against Russia as long as possible.

This explains why Europe is now writing a blank cheque to fund Ukraine’s defense, as seen with the €90 billion EU loan facility for Ukraine agreed by the EC in December.

Second, going back, Russia had argued that its decision to first annex Crimea back in 2014, and then first invade Donbas in the same year, and then launch the full-scale invasion in 2022, was driven by the risk of NATO expansion to Ukraine, and the risk that would impose on Russia. And in the various peace tracks – Istanbul, Antalya, and Anchorage – the Russian side has demanded Ukraine give up its NATO membership bid.

Do Zaluzhnyi’s comments suggest that this could now be a concession from Ukraine to push the peace process forward? One might think so. But I have long argued that Putin’s war on Ukraine was never about NATO enlargement but about Putin’s rejection of the very right of Ukraine to exist.

Third, the big irony in all this is that the reality back in 2014, or 2022, and as proven by events, is that NATO membership for Ukraine was never really a realistic prospect – too much foot-dragging within NATO.

But actually in those same years prior to the full-scale invasion, Ukraine presented little offensive risk to Russia. In 2014, for example, Ukraine had a military of only a few hundred thousand strong, which was poorly armed and trained, while the country was non-aligned, and its military doctrine was actually to counter a threat from the West, not the East.

Fast forward a decade plus, and Ukraine has the first/second largest and most effective military in Europe – competing for first place there with Russia. And it now has deep-strike capability (actioned) to hit deep into Russia, plus a proven ability, demonstrated from the Kursk offensive, to attack into Russia.

So previously Ukraine was not a stand-alone threat to Russia; the perceived threat by Russia was if Ukraine joined NATO, but that was never very realistic, and if Zaluzhnyi is to be believed, Ukraine has moved on from those desires.

Fourth, as I have long argued, NATO was never much of a threat to Russia before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. NATO enlargement extended the collective security umbrella, but the result of that was less NATO defense spending, not more.

And NATO enlargement actually was part of the problem in terms of encouraging NATO members to cut defense spending to the point that, at sub-2% of GDP, much of NATO in Europe was not able to defend itself. And that is now reflected in the ongoing debate that Europe needs to increase defense spending, as the current spend is not enough to defend Europe from a Russian attack.

Note here that if Europe is not spending enough to defend itself from attack by Russia, it cannot actually threaten Russia. So why is Russia worried about NATO enlargement? NATO enlargement actually resulted in less European defense capability, not more risk to Russia.

And the big irony is that while NATO enlargement brought less risk or threat to Russia, its reaction by invading Ukraine has made Europe feel insecure and now encouraged a commitment across Europe to increase defense spending – from the 2% cap (or less) to now 3.5/5%.

At 3.5% European defense spending, on a $25 trillion economy, that would be a near $900 billion defense spend, likely four times plus Russia’s current defense spend. And on Russia’s $2 trillion GDP economy, there is no way it can now match an arms race with Europe. As with the Soviet Union in the 1980s, that will inevitably end in defeat and likely economic and political collapse.

So the idiot Putin invaded Ukraine when there was no threat of NATO membership or military threat from NATO or Ukraine, and has now started an arms race with Ukraine and Europe, which Russia can never win. Genius from Putin – not.

Reprinted with permission from the author. Read the original here.