The American Chamber of Commerce in Romania (AmCham) released a statement on Wednesday arguing that Fitch’s decision to maintain the country’s investment-grade rating at BBB-, the lowest level in the category, provides an important signal of confidence to investors and financial markets, but also underlines the fiscal and institutional vulnerabilities that remain unresolved.
The organisation noted that the decision had been awaited with similar anxiety to last summer’s review, when Romania also avoided a downgrade amid a deficit that Fitch had projected at 7.4% of GDP for 2025.
This time, the agency’s 2026 deficit estimate has fallen to 5.9% of GDP, below the government’s official forecast of 6.2%. According to AmCham, the report acknowledges progress in several technical areas, but continues to raise concerns over the sustainability of fiscal consolidation, the still high budget deficit and persistent macroeconomic imbalances.
AmCham argued that Fitch’s assessment identifies political instability, uncertainty in decision-making and the risk of slower reforms as central causes of Romania’s macroeconomic fragility.
Beyond the rating affirmation itself, the organisation said the main message for the business community is that investor confidence and Romania’s credibility depend directly on stable governance, predictable public policies and the ability of public institutions to deliver on reform commitments.
Companies have already absorbed much of the cost of reducing the budget deficit, AmCham said, while continuing to invest, pay taxes, sustain employment and support the economy during a difficult period. However, the organisation warned that the private sector cannot compensate for the lack of policy predictability, which remains a key criterion for clients, shareholders and institutional investors.
Calls for political stability and continued fiscal adjustment
Romania will next be reviewed by the other two major international rating agencies, S&P and Moody’s. AmCham said that measures to continue reducing the deficit and implement committed reforms, including efforts to restore political and administrative stability, will therefore be decisive for the country’s credibility.
The organisation called for less political confrontation and greater institutional responsibility, arguing that the response to Fitch’s message cannot be limited to statements, promises or future commitments.
AmCham said immediate action is needed, including cross-party agreement on Romania’s strategic priorities, stable governance, a fully empowered government and the continuation of fiscal adjustment towards the 3% budget deficit target. It also called for a concrete plan for euro adoption.
The priorities identified by the organisation include combating tax evasion, improving tax collection, restructuring public spending, professionalising public administration and accelerating reforms needed to absorb funding available through the NRRP and the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework.
AmCham also called for Romania to make full use of the opportunities offered by the SAFE instrument, warning that these priorities can no longer be postponed or subordinated to electoral cycles.
Systemic vulnerabilities and investment priorities
The business community and wider society expect decision-makers to stop tolerating corruption, incompetence and delays affecting strategic projects in sectors including energy, public-sector digitalisation, defence, healthcare and education, AmCham said.
The organisation argued that the current crises in the energy and cybersecurity sectors have exposed systemic vulnerabilities that could have been reduced through earlier reforms and investment.
As economic, energy, climate and security challenges become more frequent and complex, delays in reform and critical infrastructure investment, combined with prolonged political instability, create bottlenecks, increase economic costs, weaken trust in public institutions and fuel social tensions, according to AmCham.
With financing needs remaining high and the global economy undergoing significant change, Romania should focus on encouraging existing investors to expand their operations while attracting new large-scale investments with a strong multiplier effect across the economy.
Preserving, and ideally improving, the sovereign credit rating, alongside OECD accession and eventual entry into the euro area, would provide a concrete signal of Romania’s commitment to international investors, AmCham said.
Investors expect reforms to be implemented, public policies to become more effective and Romania’s strategic objectives to be placed above political cycles and short-term interests.
AmCham Romania said it would remain an active partner in this process through policy dialogue and practical recommendations aimed at strengthening the predictability and sustainability of public policies and improving Romania’s attractiveness as an investment destination.