AKIPRESS.COM – 2026 currently ranks as the third-warmest year on record, though the likelihood of it setting a new temperature record is growing, Euronews reported, citing climatologists and data from international climate services.
According to Berkeley Earth climatologist Zeke Hausfather, the probability that 2026 will surpass 2024 and become the warmest year on record is currently around 35%. Back in March, he estimated this chance at just 7%.
Former NASA chief climatologist James Hansen also believes that by the end of the year, 2026 may slightly exceed the figures for 2024.
Scientists attribute one of the factors driving global temperatures up to record-breaking warming of the world’s oceans. According to Euronews, the average daily sea surface temperature matched 2024 levels back in May and has been breaking records almost daily since June.
As Hansen explained, there is usually a lag of about a month and a half between a rise in ocean temperature and its reflection in the global average temperature indicator. This means that the effect of the current ocean overheating has not yet fully impacted global air temperatures.
According to the Copernicus climate service, about 82% of the world’s ocean surface is experiencing elevated temperatures this year, with marine heatwaves recorded in several regions.
At the same time, assessments from various scientific organizations still vary noticeably. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) previously estimated the probability of 2026 being the warmest year at just 0.1%, and the probability of it ranking fourth-warmest at 66%. However, NOAA notes that these estimates could change following the analysis of July data.
An additional factor could be the intensifying El Niño natural phenomenon – a periodic warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that affects weather worldwide.
According to climatologists, the current El Niño could turn out to be one of the strongest on record. Meanwhile, its maximum impact on global temperatures is not expected until several months from now.
Climate Central climatologist Zachary Labe explains that during El Niño, the ocean releases its accumulated heat into the atmosphere. This effect is currently being amplified by years of heat accumulation driven by rising greenhouse gas concentrations.
According to scientific estimates, about 90% of the excess heat generated by global warming is absorbed by seas and oceans.
Specialists emphasize that current heatwaves and wildfires cannot be explained solely by El Niño.
“The primary driver of record warmth is background climate change. Its contribution is much larger than that of El Niño, which only adds a tenth or two of a degree to the long-term trend,” Labe noted.
According to Euronews, climatologists virtually agree that 2027 has a high probability of being even warmer, as that is when the full impact of a strong El Niño is likely to manifest.
Scientists note that global warming continues to accelerate. Among the potential reasons, James Hansen cites a reduction in traditional industrial pollution, which previously partially offset warming by reflecting sunlight, as well as a higher climate system sensitivity to greenhouse gases than previously assumed.
In the summer of 2026, extreme heat was recorded across multiple regions of the world simultaneously.
Head of the Copernicus Global Strategy Program Samantha Burgess noted that heatwaves were particularly severe in regions where the population is historically unaccustomed to such high temperatures.
In Europe, exceptional heat was observed as early as May. New heatwaves followed in June and twice in July. In early August, high temperatures returned to France and Spain.
Severe heatwaves were also recorded in North and South America, while in India, extreme temperatures led to serious consequences for the population.
Princeton University climatologist Michael Oppenheimer noted that current events align with the scenarios scientists have warned about for decades.
According to him, climate change is already noticeably increasing the probability of severe wildfires, prolonged heatwaves, and unprecedentedly hot summer seasons worldwide.