(Bloomberg) — NATO’s eastern European members are offering to cut costs for US troops stationed on their soil to discourage the Trump administration from reducing its military footprint there, according to people familiar with the matter.
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The bid is being prepared for an alliance meeting with US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby in Brussels Aug. 27 and reflects the urgency of their maintaining a credible deterrent against Russia amid the Pentagon’s six-month review of its military presence in Europe.
The review includes a US questionnaire due on Aug. 28, seen by Bloomberg, that surprised European capitals in the middle of the summer with questions gauging support for Donald Trump’s plans, including whether countries have been “publicly supportive” of his foreign policy, about restrictions on US military base use and whether nations are spending money with US defense contractors.
The number of US troops in Europe fluctuates between 80,000 and 100,000 depending on rotations and exercises, with over a third based in Germany. Eastern Europe hosts fewer troops — ranging from a few hundred in the Baltics to several thousand in Poland. The countries on NATO’s eastern flank will reflect their strong wish to host as many US troops as possible, explaining why they’d offer to foot more of the bill, the people said.
NATO’s largest European members are in talks to coordinate a response that avoids triggering the US president’s ire, which has erupted since they refused to participate in the US-Israeli war on Iran. Many of those allies largely see the questionnaire, which they attribute to Colby, as an attempt to strong-arm them into ideological alignment in exchange for US protection.
After the initial shock, consensus has spread among capitals about responding constructively and generally, projecting a common understanding that all allies still need and want US troop presence in Europe, these people said.
“There are issues on which we agree with the United States and issues on which we disagree. In time, we will also respond to this questionnaire,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said after Bloomberg first reported on it. “I don’t see it as pressure, it’s the way the current US administration operates.”
Oana Lungescu, a distinguished fellow at the UK defense think tank RUSI and former NATO spokesperson, noted that tradeoffs involving troop deployments and arms sales were not unusual, but generally less overt and adversarial.
“This move risks encouraging competition among allies currying favor from Washington,” she said, adding that while some sort of US process regarding the review could be helpful, the evidence so far was that the administration didn’t rely much on process but rather on “perceived loyalty, ideological affinity and the president’s whims rather than long-term strategy, threat perception and the need for NATO unity.”
The questionnaire arrived in August, with the Trump administration’s six-month review of its military presence in Europe expected to conclude by December. The US has already announced deep cuts to the military assets Washington would send during an attack, and allies are now bracing for a reduction in the number of troops and kit currently stationed in Europe.
A global review of the US force posture announced at the beginning of his presidency has not materialized, and allies believed it had been scrapped but was revived as a solely European project after Trump’s ire at what he has perceived as a lack of support for his war in Iran.
While most European countries have granted the US access to air bases to wage the war — Spain was a notable exception — some European leaders have publicly criticized the war, angering the US president.
Some allies will provide a wider ranging general response in order to avoid having to respond in detail to some of the most unusual questions, namely asking whether countries would be willing to publicly support US foreign policy moves or condemn “made in Europe” defense industrial policies.
Some European allies have privately questioned how serious the questionnaire is, and think the decisions may already have been taken in view of having a deliverable for the midterms.
The assessment is expected to further cull the US military footprint in Europe. Already, the US said it would withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany and redeploy other forces without replacements. Trump did, however, pledge to send additional troops to Poland, citing the election of nationalist Karol Nawrocki as president.
The US is also slashing the military assets earmarked for an attack on NATO allies. The reductions affect strategic bombers, which Europe does not possess, drones and naval vessels.
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment asking to confirm Colby’s trip to Brussels.
–With assistance from Andra Timu and Patrick Van Oosterom.
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