Warnings about a future confrontation continue to circulate, but Finland’s president says the evidence points to a different assessment of Russia’s intentions.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb considers a Russian attack on NATO territory before 2029 unlikely. According to him, there are currently neither facts nor evidence to support such a scenario.
As reported by zeit.de.
If someone had such a crystal ball, that would be wonderful. But I simply do not see any evidence or facts to support it.
– Alexander Stubb
The Finnish president said he did not believe Russia intended to attack the world’s most powerful military alliance. In his view, NATO has stronger deterrence capabilities than any other military force, thanks to its conventional armed forces, missiles, and nuclear weapons.
At the same time, Stubb urged people not to underestimate the Russian threat. He emphasized that it was necessary to prepare for the worst-case scenario precisely to prevent it from becoming reality.
The Finnish president believes that Russia is primarily trying to sow fear and force Europe to discuss possible escalation, the use of nuclear weapons, or an attack on NATO. According to him, it would make no sense for any country in the world to test the alliance’s resolve. Stubb based this assessment on intelligence data and NATO’s deterrence capabilities.
Warnings of a Possible Russian Attack
Several Western politicians and military officials had previously warned that Russia could attack NATO territory in the coming years. Bundeswehr Inspector General Carsten Breuer said that the Russian army could be ready for a large-scale attack from 2029 onward.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned in December that an attack could take place within five years. Former British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, citing intelligence data, named 2030 as a possible date.
Stubb also called the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in Ukraine unlikely. According to him, during a visit this summer, China’s foreign minister said that Beijing would not allow such a scenario to occur.
We will never allow this to happen.
– China’s foreign minister
Stubb described this statement as “a fairly effective deterrent.” By contrast, he considers a new mobilization in Russia this autumn likely. In his view, recently adopted laws restricting freedom of movement may point to such a development.
According to Stubb’s assessment, the Russian army loses between 30,000 and 35,000 service members every month, while recruiting around 27,000 new soldiers. For this reason, he considers an additional mobilization to prepare for an attack on another country extremely unlikely.
Conditions for Ending the War Against Ukraine
At the same time, the Finnish president urged people not to underestimate the level of economic hardship the Russian population is capable of enduring. According to him, neither inflation, nor a banking crisis, nor high interest rates, nor heavy Russian military losses alone will force Moscow to end the war.
Stubb believes that a turning point could come when Russia’s leadership feels its own regime is under threat. Russia must reach the conclusion that continuing the war no longer benefits those in power. After that, the country’s leadership will only have to determine what it considers its own victory.
Earlier this week, Stubb attended a meeting of the so-called coalition of the willing in Kyiv, held on the occasion of Ukraine’s Independence Day. The talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy were also attended by European Council President António Costa and British Prime Minister Andy Burnham. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron joined the meeting via video link.
In Stubb’s view, Ukraine is currently in its strongest military, political, and financial position since the beginning of the war.
Ukraine has the advantage and will win this war.
– Alexander Stubb
He defines victory as the preservation of Ukraine, its independence, and its sovereignty.
CIA Director’s Trip to Moscow
This week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe unexpectedly traveled to Moscow for talks. According to The Wall Street Journal, the purpose of the trip was to deliver a warning to Russia not to attack any NATO country.
To deliver a warning to Russia not to attack a NATO country.
– The Wall Street Journal
In Germany, an incident involving a drone at Leipzig/Halle Airport has attracted considerable attention in recent weeks. On the evening of August 4, a drone carrying explosives was discovered there. Several Ukrainian cargo planes were nearby.
Leipzig/Halle Airport is considered an important transit point for military aid to Ukraine, which is resisting Russian aggression.