South Africa is already experiencing the effects of climate change, and those impacts are expected to intensify as global temperatures rise, President Cyril Ramaphosa warned earlier this year.
This warning comes into the spotlight after a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report, which says the world is likely to cross the 1.5°C global warming threshold within the next few years.
The report, released on September 2, says the most optimistic scenario would see global temperatures peak at about 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, while other scenarios result in higher peaks.
UNEP says that once temperatures move above 1.5°C, climate risks and impacts increase with every additional fraction of a degree and every year spent at higher temperatures.
The consequences include more extreme weather, damage to ecosystems, threats to food security and water supplies, and growing risks to human health, infrastructure and economies.
For South Africa, this is not simply a distant warning.
Addressing a special session of the Presidential Climate Commission in February, Ramaphosa said South Africa was already experiencing the effects of climate change.
“South Africa is already experiencing the effects of climate change,” he said, adding that these effects were “predicted to increase rapidly” towards the end of the decade and beyond.
Ramaphosa said the country needed to climate-proof its development and infrastructure while strengthening resilience and disaster-management capabilities.
This means the consequences of a warmer world are likely to be felt not only through changes in temperatures, but through the pressure those changes place on infrastructure, agriculture, water resources and communities.
Heat and water pressure
One of the clearest immediate concerns is the combination of higher temperatures and unreliable rainfall.
A September 2 statement from the Department of Agriculture, based on the South African Weather Service’s August 31 2026 Seasonal Climate Watch, said El Niño conditions were expected to continue through the 2026/27 summer season.
The department said the outlook showed many areas facing below-normal rainfall during summer.
In South Africa, it said, El Niño is usually associated with lower-than-normal rainfall coupled with high temperatures.
For farmers, that combination can have terrible consequences.
The Agriculture Department warned that below-normal rainfall and high temperatures can result in dry conditions and heat stress, which can contribute to crop failures and livestock deaths.
Low rainfall can also result in water restrictions, affecting irrigation farmers.
It’s worth noting that this does not mean the current El Niño conditions are caused by the UNEP warming scenario.
It means that the type of combined heat and rainfall pressures can put additional strain on sectors already vulnerable to climate variability.
Food production faces growing risks
Agriculture is particularly exposed because farmers depend on adequate rainfall, soil moisture and manageable temperatures.
The Agriculture Department is already advising farmers to conserve soil moisture, use climate-smart farming practices and select cultivars capable of withstanding dry and hot conditions.
It has also urged livestock farmers to avoid overstocking and to manage grazing carefully as dry conditions take hold.
UNEP’s warning suggests that these challenges become more difficult as global warming increases.
Its latest report says that above 1.5°C, risks to food security and water supplies intensify with every additional fraction of a degree.
Extreme weather and infrastructure
South Africa’s vulnerability also extends beyond agriculture.
Ramaphosa said the country needed to climate-proof its infrastructure and strengthen disaster-management capabilities as the effects of climate change increase.
That is noteworthy as UNEP warns that higher warming will bring increasingly severe climate impacts, including extreme weather and damage to cities and infrastructure.
The implication for South Africa is that roads, bridges, water systems, settlements and other infrastructure will need to be designed and maintained with greater climate risks in mind.
The 1.5°C threshold is often misunderstood as meaning simply that temperatures will rise by another 1.5°C in South Africa.
That is not what the UNEP report means.
The 1.5°C figure refers to the global average temperature compared with the pre-industrial period. Different regions and locations can experience substantially different changes.
The concern is that a warmer global climate changes the conditions under which heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other hazards occur.
UNEP says climate impacts intensify above 1.5°C and can compound over time.
However, UNEP’s report is not saying that crossing 1.5°C means the climate battle has been lost.
Instead, it argues that the priority should be to make any period above 1.5°C as small and as short as possible.
The report describes an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway, in which global temperatures rise above 1.5°C, reach a peak and then decline towards, and potentially below, the threshold.
UNEP says the lower the peak and the shorter the period of overshoot, the lower the risks to people, economies and ecosystems.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said there were “no good outcomes” from remaining above 1.5°C and called for countries to accelerate emissions cuts while strengthening resilience and adaptation.
What this means for South Africa
So what does this have to do with us? South Africa needs to continue reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming, while preparing for the climate impacts that are already occurring.
That means more resilient infrastructure, stronger disaster preparedness, better early-warning systems, climate-smart agriculture and careful management of scarce water resources.
Ramaphosa’s February warning indicates that South Africa must reduce emissions while also preparing for a climate that is already changing.
And with the Agriculture Department now warning of the combination of below-normal rainfall, high temperatures, dry conditions and heat stress heading into the 2026/27 summer season, some of the pressures associated with a warmer and more variable climate are already being felt on the ground.
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