Armenia’s inclusion in Türkiye’s official export statistics has brought renewed attention to the potential for direct economic ties between the two neighbouring countries. Although officially recorded trade remains limited, significant volumes of Turkish goods reportedly reach the Armenian market through third countries.
In an interview with News.Az, Armenian activist Ishkhan Verdyan discusses the prospects for normalising trade, the potential economic impact of opening direct trade channels, and the possible significance of closer economic ties with Türkiye amid changing Armenia-Russia relations.
– Türkiye has, for the first time, recorded Armenia as a separate destination in its export statistics, with shipments to the country amounting to only around $1.3 million between January and August. What does Armenia’s appearance in the official trade data mean, despite the very small volume recorded?
– The official figures do not provide the full picture of trade between Armenia and Türkiye. When assessing the actual scale of economic exchange, it is important to take into account the substantial volume of unofficial imports from Türkiye that currently reach Armenia.
Turkish textiles, various types of machinery and equipment, as well as a wide range of other Turkish-made products, are already widely used in Armenia. These goods are transported to Armenia from Türkiye through Georgia and other countries. However, this trade is largely not reflected in official statistics.
– Does this mean the officially reported trade turnover between Armenia and Türkiye cannot be regarded as an accurate measure of the countries’ actual economic ties?
– The $1.3 million figure, considered in isolation, tells us very little about the real scale of economic relations between the two countries. A considerable share of the actual turnover remains within the unofficial sector and therefore does not appear in the official figures.
– How could the situation change if trade between Armenia and Türkiye were fully normalised and direct trade links were established?
– Full legalisation and normalisation of trade could bring a substantial part of the existing hidden turnover into the official economy. Once direct trade becomes possible, goods would no longer need to pass through third countries simply to reach the Armenian market. The opening of accessible borders would also be important given the geographical proximity of the two countries. These factors could not only formalise a significant share of the trade that is already taking place, but also potentially increase the overall volume of trade between Armenia and Türkiye.
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– What kind of economic potential do you see in the development of direct trade relations between Armenia and Türkiye?
– Regardless of the current circumstances, there is considerable potential for economic interaction between Armenia and Türkiye. If this potential is realised, it could have a very positive effect on Armenia’s economic situation.
At the same time, the development of economic ties could have significance beyond trade itself. It could create an additional impetus for dialogue between Armenia and Türkiye, while also contributing to further dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
– Against the backdrop of the current official trade figures, how important is the possibility of establishing direct trade itself?
– The current official figures are certainly small, but I think greater attention should be paid to the opportunity that has now emerged for direct trade rather than simply to the present numbers.
The important point is that this would establish a trade channel that previously did not exist. There are now no remaining legal obstacles to such direct trade, which creates an entirely new opportunity for economic interaction between Armenia and Türkiye.
– Could closer trade relations with Türkiye become particularly important for Armenia amid the current state of Armenia-Russia relations?
– Certainly. The state of Armenia-Russia relations is another factor that needs to be taken into consideration. Against the backdrop of strained relations between Armenia and Russia, trade with Türkiye could provide Armenia with an additional channel for obtaining supplies.
If Armenia-Russia relations were to deteriorate further and this resulted in disruptions to key economic connections between the two countries, having a direct trade route with Türkiye could become an important factor in maintaining Armenia’s economic resilience.