This country's election 'disaster' puts all of Europe at risk

Friedrich Merz summoned his inner Margaret Thatcher on Sunday, as his Christian Democrats (CDU) slumped to historic lows in the latest string of German elections. The results could have far-reaching consequences, with the rise of the far-right across Europe and Vladimir Putin looking to benefit from cracks and divisions among Ukraine’s closest allies.

The result in the region of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern was, Merz said, “a disaster”. He would not sugarcoat it, he added, before proclaiming that he would – I paraphrase only slightly – “fight on, fight to win”.

Those with a long memory will recall those words from Thatcher in November 1990. But within days she had agreed to go, defiance melting away in the face of harsh reality.

Shorts

Scroll to previous short

Scroll to next short

The next few days will be crucial for Merz, and for Germany. The outcome in the northern region, in what was once the communist east, was the worst the party has suffered since its founding in 1945. It fell below the 5 per cent hurdle established to keep extremists out.

The Social Democrats (SPD), a junior partner in the national government, will continue to run the area after an impressive campaign by its leader, Manuela Schwesig. She could be someone the beleaguered centre-left parties turn to at the next general election.

But the SPD was pipped to the top spot by the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which got 37 per cent of the vote. While it was below the spectacular result achieved in Saxony Anhalt two weeks ago – and won’t give it a shot at governing – the results show how much German, and European, politics have changed.

Like in France, and across vast swathes of Europe, the running is being made by the far-right, followed by the far-left. Mainstream parties are haemorrhaging voters. Those who rely on European unity will be looking on with horror.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaking at a CDU campaign event ahead of Berlin state elections on 17 September, 2026 (Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

This was not how it was supposed to be. Germany’s post-war constitution stipulated three political traditions. The centre-right CDU would represent conservative-minded voters; the centre-left SPD would appeal to the working class. The smaller FDP would espouse liberal economics. That party has been all but wiped out. The Greens arrived later and were incorporated into the mainstream. These parties would form different coalitions at national and regional level, based on consensus and compromise. That is now looking increasingly precarious.

In Berlin, the Left took the capital by storm. Elif Eralp, its leader, is a cross between Zohran Mamdani and Zack Polanski. Young, fashionable, sharp and savvy on social media, she is likely to become the first woman and the first person of Turkish descent to run the city. Eralp has vowed to expropriate apartments from commercial landlords to try to solve the city’s housing crisis. There is radical fight in her belly.

But Merz is nothing if not determined. Like Gordon Brown, he spent over a decade plotting against his party’s leader (for Tony Blair, read Angela Merkel) while promising to move his party back towards its roots. In Merz’s case, it was more unabashed conservativism. The problem was that he was forced to form a coalition with the left-leaning SPD.

Cue in-fighting, record low popularity ratings. Merz is loathed by many, on the right and left. His acerbic manner doesn’t help – he has few friends left to defend him.

In shades of Keir Starmer, Merz has done well on the international stage. He has robustly defended Ukraine and has transformed Germany from a paralysed pacifist to an outrider on defence spending – 3.5 per cent of the country’s GDP spent on defence by 2029 is some feat.

A banner depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin under the motto “Noon against Putin” at a protest outside the Russian Embassy in Berlin this year (Photo: Maryam Majd/Reuters)

If he were to go, Europe would lose its most important bulwark against Russia. The Kremlin will be watching the results with glee, coming at a time when Putin’s United Russia party is claiming its own victory in elections that saw opponents killed, locked up or silenced.

France may soon face a similar moment, with the possible takeover of the presidency by Marine Le Pen next May, and results in Poland next autumn that are likely to see the return of the far-right there. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni is also being challenged by a party even further to the right.

A few months ago, many political scientists wondered whether the spectacular ousting of Viktor Orban in Hungary might suggest the far-right bubble was bursting. That no longer looks to be the case. If anything, the rise of the far-right looks more ingrained across the continent.

For Merz, the only factor helping him is that his party can’t work out how and when to replace him. The likeliest candidate, Hendrik Wüst, premier of North Rhine Westphalia, faces regional elections next April. He either must go for the top job now or wait at least a year. Others are in the mix, but none stand out.

Merz is looking to play the long game, hoping his reforms start to bear fruit, the economy cranks into gear and the country grudgingly begins to tolerate him. But for the moment, Europe’s largest economy and most powerful state is in flux.

The lesson that the UK and other countries need to learn is nowhere is safe from the extremist threat. Andy Burnham may feel a little more comfortable; he is polling several points higher than his dour predecessor, connects better with voters and he is trying to be more positive. His arrival in Downing Street also coincided with Reform’s stickiest period for some years, mired in financial allegations and investigations.

And yet, money is pouring into Reform and Restore and it would be foolhardy to believe that Britain is somehow in a better place than Germany or elsewhere in Europe. Sadly, we’re all in this together.

This country’s election ‘disaster’ puts all of Europe at risk