Canada has long dominated US potash supplies, but Washington’s latest turn towards Belarus is widening the search for alternative sources and drawing attention to two Atlantic-facing African countries.
US President Donald Trump said on September 21 that Washington was working on a “massive Deal” to purchase Belarusian potash at prices “substantially less” than those paid to Canada.
The announcement came days after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close Russian ally, said potash sales to the United States had resumed after Washington eased sanctions.
As part of the discussions, Lukashenko also called for the return of more than $40 million frozen in the US banking system, as trade tensions continue between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Farhad Abasov, chairman of Millennial Potash, told Business Insider Africa that the Belarus talks show Washington is looking beyond price to supply security.
“Whether or not significant Belarusian volumes ultimately reach American farmers, Washington is clearly looking at alternative sources. I believe that creates an opening over time for reliable new suppliers, including Atlantic-facing projects in Africa.”
Gabon emerges as one option
Gabon is among the African countries that could benefit from Washington’s search for additional potash suppliers.
Its Banio Potash Project lies about 60 kilometres from the Atlantic near Mayumba, giving it potential access to a relatively direct shipping route to the United States.
The project holds 648.2 million tonnes of measured resources, 1.8 billion tonnes of indicated resources and 3.56 billion tonnes of inferred resources.
A Definitive Feasibility Study is assessing initial production of 800,000 tonnes of muriate of potash, or MOP, annually, with larger production scenarios also under review.
“The attributes we believe can make Banio competitive are its potential for solution mining, its scale and, critically, its location near the Atlantic and planned port infrastructure at Mayumba.”
Meanwhile, Banio has recently attracted direct US government interest. The US International Development Finance Corporation has committed $3 million towards project development, while US Embassy Acting Chargé d’Affaires for Gabon Susan N’Garnim and a delegation of US diplomats visited the site on September 10 to review drilling, infrastructure and progress towards the Definitive Feasibility Study.
According to Abasov, the funding is not construction financing or an offtake deal, but it places Washington directly behind the project’s development.
Congo offers a second Atlantic route
Like Gabon, the Republic of Congo has large potash resources close to the Atlantic, giving it another potential route into the US market.
One of its leading projects is Kore Potash’s Kola development, operated through its Congolese subsidiary, Sintoukola Potash.
The project is designed around marine export infrastructure and is expected to produce about 2.2 million tonnes of MOP annually.
Unlike Gabon’s Banio project, Kola has no disclosed US government backing. However, its scale and Atlantic access could make it relevant to future US efforts to diversify potash supplies.
Ethiopia and Eritrea also have substantial potash resources, but their logistics and the type of potash being developed make them less suited to the bulk MOP market used widely in American agriculture.
That puts Gabon and the Republic of Congo in a stronger position among African countries seeking to serve future US demand.
Their Atlantic access could offer a logistical advantage over Belarus, which is landlocked, depends on rail links and foreign ports, and has faced export disruptions from European sanctions.
The timing could also favour Gabon, Congo and other African potash producers as Washington looks to diversify supplies beyond Canada, its dominant source.
“What has changed strategically is that potash is now formally recognized by the United States as a critical mineral. African potash is therefore no longer simply an African agricultural story. It can also become part of a broader U.S. strategy to build more diversified and resilient fertilizer supply chains.” Abasov said.