US intelligence has warned several European countries of a possible Russian drone operation targeting Spain, France or Italy, with the information reportedly describing drones launched from commercial vessels, according to Spanish media.
The warning was first reported by journalist Xavier Colás, a former Russia correspondent, in the Spanish newspaper El Mundo. The report traces the alert to a visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow last August and describes a specific scenario in which drones would be launched from merchant ships disguised as normal commercial traffic.
According to information obtained from anonymous sources in Lithuania’s Ministry of Defense and reported by El Mundo, the drone involved would be the Gerbera, a small Russian aircraft measuring barely two meters in length and weighing 18 kilograms. It can reportedly travel up to 600 kilometers at about 160 km/h.
Its explosive payload is limited to between four and five kilograms, meaning an attack would not be designed to cause mass destruction. Instead, the intended effects could include temporarily shutting down an airport, starting a fire or showing that Moscow can strike targets in Europe’s rear without crossing a land border.
The possibility of using maritime platforms to launch drones has already been tested by the Kremlin. In February, a Swedish naval unit detected a drone taking off from a Russian intelligence vessel in the Öresund Strait.
The investigation also points to the armed-drone attack at Leipzig airport in Germany, which Berlin attributes to Russian intelligence, as well as the incident involving 19 unarmed drones that flew over Polish airspace a year ago.
Analysts cited by the Spanish newspaper say the potential targets in southern Europe would be selected because of political vulnerability rather than geographical proximity. British expert Keir Giles, who specializes in Russian military strategy, said Moscow would seek out weaker points in Europe, specifically citing Spain, which does not have integrated air-defense systems suited to this type of threat.
“Moscow will look for the weakest point in Europe,” Giles said.
The assessment is linked to a warning made months ago by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that a Russian missile would need only about 10 additional minutes to reach Madrid compared with Warsaw. Rutte used the comparison to challenge the idea that southern Europe is outside the “eastern flank” and therefore beyond the risks created by Russia’s war against Ukraine, launched in 2022.
The possibility of drones being launched from the Mediterranean, while slower than missiles, carries a similar symbolic message that geographical distance no longer guarantees security for European countries.
Spain, France and Italy also have elections scheduled for 2027 and have political forces that could capitalize on public fatigue after years of war in Ukraine, despite US President Donald Trump’s stated aim of ending the conflict before winter. The investigation says Vladimir Putin’s government could seek to exploit such conditions through an inexpensive operation capable of generating major media attention.
The intelligence warning comes at a sensitive time for Spain‘s security policy. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government has been reluctant to increase defense spending to the new level demanded by NATO, a position that has created open tensions with Donald Trump and left bilateral relations close to breaking point.
One recent example came at the UN General Assembly, where Sánchez declined to attend a reception hosted by Trump in New York.
Against that backdrop, the intelligence alert places additional pressure on the government in Madrid, as limited investment in air-defense and anti-missile systems is presented as a vulnerability while concerns about a direct threat to Spanish territory increase.
Spain‘s exposure to Russian interests also extends beyond military issues. Journalistic investigations over the years have documented assets connected to circles around the Kremlin along the Andalusian coast.
One of the best-known cases involves Liudmila Ocheretnaya, formerly Liudmila Putina and the ex-wife of Vladimir Putin. Together with her current husband, Artur Ocheretny, she came to own two luxury properties in the Lomas del Rey complex in Marbella valued at 2.2 million euros.
Reports at the time said the properties were to be sold urgently because of concerns that she could be added to the European Union sanctions list, after the United Kingdom had already imposed sanctions on her.
Later journalistic investigations continued to trace companies and foundations connected to Ocheretny and his associates, leaving questions over the extent of Russian economic interests, whether direct or indirect, in Spain.
There has been no recent public confirmation that the properties were sold or information establishing Ocheretnaya’s current residency status on the Costa del Sol.
The El Mundo report also points to what it describes as Moscow’s months-long activity “below the threshold of war,” combining isolated acts of sabotage with tests of European responses such as those reported in Poland and Germany.
According to the CIA assessment cited by the newspaper, that escalation pattern could now extend into the Mediterranean, challenging the perception that countries such as Spain are protected by their distance from the conflict. Rutte’s comparison suggests that in today’s Europe, a 10-minute difference in missile travel time no longer separates a country considered safe from one exposed to risk.