Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has reigned supreme as the world’s top cryptocurrency. It now has a market cap of $1.7 trillion, nearly 5 times that of Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), its next closest competitor.
Given this yawning gap in size, is it really possible that any cryptocurrency might surpass Bitcoin in market cap within the next five years? After running the numbers, you might be surprised at the answer.
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Does the math work?
Bitcoin has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% over the past decade. So, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that Bitcoin continues to grow at a 34% clip over the next five years.
By the end of that period, Bitcoin will be worth more than $7 trillion, and a single Bitcoin will sell for roughly $350,000. That might sound like pie-in-the-sky thinking, but Coinbase Global CEO Brian Armstrong thinks Bitcoin might actually trade as high as $400,000 by the end of 2030.
Image source: Getty Images.
For our purposes, the number to beat is $7 trillion. At the end of five years, a rival cryptocurrency needs to be worth more than $7 trillion to surpass Bitcoin.
That’s a big ask, so let’s focus on cryptocurrencies with market caps exceeding $5 billion. Several of these have been surging this year, and these large-cap coins are the most likely candidates to de-throne Bitcoin, provided they can maintain their blistering growth rates for five years.
For example, Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC), with a market cap of $26 billion, is up 195% year to date. NEAR Protocol (CRYPTO: NEAR), with a market cap of $6 billion, is up 203%. And Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE), with a market cap of $23 billion, is up 267%.
Let’s assume that all three of these continue to grow at the same stratospherically high rates over the next five years. At the end of that period, only Hyperliquid would be worth more than $7 trillion. Zcash just isn’t growing fast enough, and NEAR Protocol is starting from a smaller market-cap base.
Let’s widen our net even further to include cryptocurrencies with market caps of $1.5 billion and higher. Venice (CRYPTO: VVV), an AI token, is up a heart-thumping 1,760% this year. Theoretically, it could catch up to Bitcoin after five years, given Bitcoin’s exponential growth rate.
Just how realistic are these projections?
Of course, it’s unreasonable to expect any cryptocurrency to grow at such fantastically high rates for five consecutive years. Cryptocurrencies are notoriously volatile, and investor sentiment can change on a dime. Even Bitcoin has had a hard time stringing together three good years in a row, let alone five.
That’s why I’m less bullish on Zcash and NEAR Protocol than many other investors. Zcash has been around for more than a decade, and is still trading 74% below its all-time high from 2016. The same is true for NEAR Protocol, which is down 77% from its all-time high in 2022.
I’m starting to believe the hype, but Hyperliquid is just too new to trust fully. The HYPE token launched at the end of 2024 and hasn’t shown the resilience investors have seen in Bitcoin, which has successfully weathered many economic cycles.
I’m more bullish on Venice. For one, it’s an AI token so that it will benefit from the exploding investor interest in artificial intelligence. This is a big macro trend with long-term staying power. If you buy into the growing convergence of AI and crypto, then Venice might have a very bright future ahead.
At the end of the day, if you’re looking for a crypto to flip Bitcoin, your best chances are with a high-flying crypto currently growing at a much faster pace than Bitcoin. That’s why I’m focused on Hyperliquid and Venice as potential investment targets.
That said, plenty of cryptocurrency rivals have tried to challenge Bitcoin over the past 17 years, and every single one has failed. So keep expectations in check.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, Hyperliquid, NEAR Protocol, and Venice Token. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
In 5 Years, One of These Cryptocurrencies Could Be Worth More Than Bitcoin was originally published by The Motley Fool
