On Wednesday, the U.S. publication Politico wrote that the United States will leave several allies, including the Baltic states, out of next month’s gathering of NATO members that will discuss the future of the alliance.
When ERR asked ministries for confirmation regarding the claims made in the article, the response was that allies consult with each other continuously in different formats. It was also said that in NATO, in addition to official formats, there are various groupings among allies where security and defense issues are discussed.
Prime Minister Kristen Michal emphasized that this is not an official NATO meeting.
“The format that began in Bergen at the initiative of the United States is not a NATO meeting,” Michal said. “It has been held in different formats, with participation from defense ministers, foreign ministers, and ambassadors, but NATO decisions are made at the NATO working level.”
According to Michal, the JEF format is important for Estonia. “We also communicate in the North‑Baltic region, which is outside NATO but still largely includes an allied format,” he added.
Defense Minister Martin Herem noted that if Scandinavian countries are invited to the meeting, then they are also interested in standing up for Estonia’s interests. “In all this Baltic Sea security issue, they cannot manage without our security. Therefore, they cannot leave our interests aside there in any way,” Herem said.
According to six diplomats familiar with preparations for the event, the planned meeting in Poland, led by Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby, is essentially a working group focused on NATO’s future.
Reportedly, the United Kingdom, France, and the Baltic states will be left out of the meeting.
MP Raimond Kaljulaid (SDE). Source: Priit Mürk/ERR
MP: no point in putting on a good face in a bad game
Member of the Riigikogu National Defense Committee Raimond Kaljulaid (SDE) wrote on social media that the Baltic states have no reason to put on a good face regarding being left out of the meeting. According to him, being left out of the meeting sends Russia the message that the three Baltic states are a special zone.
“This fact, that Estonia is not at the table when questions about NATO’s future are discussed in a narrower circle under the leadership of NATO’s leading ally, the U.S., is of course a minus sign, not a plus sign or neutral,” he noted.
According to Kaljulaid, the explanation that this is not an official NATO format is irrelevant. “The question is why we are not there.”
He drew attention to whom the U.S. is holding these discussions with. “Finland, Sweden, Norway and reportedly in the future also Denmark, that is the Nordic countries, and Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. The Baltic states are out, as are the UK and France.”
In the case of the United Kingdom and France, Kaljulaid believes one may speculate that the issue is that these countries have not responded very forcefully to the USA’s calls to increase defense spending and strengthen European sovereignty.
According to Kaljulaid, the explanation for the Baltic states being left out may also be purely practical. “One cannot invite one of the three, but putting all three small ones at the table already makes the circle very large, the risk of leaks etc. increases.”
At the same time, Kaljulaid admitted that a somewhat more believable explanation is that the Baltic states simply are not considered so important.
The worst thing, in Kaljulaid’s view, is that being left outside the door sends Russia the signal that the three Baltic states are like some special zone or special case.
“The Baltic states have the same status as NATO and European Union countries as Poland, Germany or Finland,” Kaljulaid emphasized. “Should we state this more clearly also from the government? I would recommend doing so.”
“We have good bilateral relations with all the invited countries and of course also with the U.S., but that does not mean that from our point of view it is acceptable that matters directly concerning us are discussed without us,” Kaljulaid said.
Marko Mihkelson. Source: Siim Lõvi / ERR
Mihkelson: I wouldn’t overdramatize this
According to MP Marko Mihkelson (Reform Party), chair of the Riigikogu Foreign Affairs Committee, the fact that the Baltic states are not included in the meeting should not be overstated.
“I wouldn’t dramatize this news in any way; it truly isn’t an official meeting,” Mihkelson said. “This Bergen group has met before as well. Elbridge Colby, if I’m not mistaken, met with the countries of this group for the first time in June.”
Mihkelson emphasized that discussions about European security take place in different venues and in different formats. In the NATO context, he said, the most important thing is what happens at NATO headquarters and what is decided at the North Atlantic Council (NAC) table.
He also recalled that just a week ago there was news about how the United States will continue its military presence in the Baltic states and increase its presence in Poland.
“Understandably, through good allies we know what is being discussed at these meetings,” he added.
According to Mihkelson, meetings of this sort do not weaken NATO unity. “I believe that Colby’s goal in promoting the NATO 3.0 idea, of which he is the author, is ultimately still the strengthening of NATO,” he said.
“We should not fuel speculation that NATO is no longer united or that there are different groups within NATO that are supposedly ready to move at different speeds, or that the Baltic states are even seemingly in some kind of isolation,” Mihkelson said.
Mihkelson does not agree with Riigikogu member Raimond Kaljulaid, who said Estonia should express its displeasure over being left out of the discussion more sharply.
“Estonia has always benefited from smart diplomacy. Estonia has been very capable, despite its relative smallness, of representing its interests well in international organizations and in bilateral relations. This must continue — I call for continuing smart diplomacy,” Mihkelson said.
Tony Lawrence, a researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), also believes that staying away from the meeting taking place in November is not a major tragedy, because no decisions are made in discussions of this format. The initiator of the meeting is Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby.
“The list of invited partners published by Politico consists of only six people from six countries. In total, there are 32 allied countries. So Estonia has not been excluded — it simply does not belong to that list,” Lawrence said.
The article has been updated with comments by Raimond Kaljulaid, Marko Mihkelson and Tony Lawrence.
—