On Tuesday 29 September, AIIA NSW hosted a presentation by Dr Jessica Genauer, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of New South Wales, on the lines of conflict shaping the Middle East. Dr Genauer examined the region’s current wars and political tensions, and considered the historical divisions, competition over resources and unequal systems of power that explain why conflicts persist in the region.
Fault lines across the region
Dr Genauer began by outlining the range of conflicts affecting the region, including the wars involving Israel, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as the civil conflict in Yemen and continuing militia activity in countries such as Syria, Libya and Iraq.These conflicts sit within a region shaped by multiple overlapping fault lines. Many of today’s states were established relatively recently, against the backdrop of Ottoman decline and European colonial influence. Dr Genauer also highlighted divisions involving Sunni and Shia communities, Kurdish populations spread across several states, and ongoing tensions over civil liberties, political repression and the role of Islam in government.
These histories shape how communities understand threats and political change. Dr Genauer identified the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Arab uprisings of 2011 and 2012 as defining events of the century so far. She also considered how the recent war involving the US, Israel and Iran (and the killing of senior Iranian political and Revolutionary Guard leaders) could influence the country’s leadership over the next several years.
What drives conflict?
Dr Genauer discussed three broad explanations often used by international relations scholars: competition over resources, communal identities and histories, and unequal systems of power. Resources can include territory, oil and natural gas, as well as access to trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Dr Genauer noted recent attacks on desalination infrastructure which raise additional concerns about water security, particularly for Gulf countries that depend on desalination.
Conflict can also harden group identities. When communities experience repeated violence, this can easily reinforce the sense that other groups pose a threat. Dr Genauer suggested that addressing this dynamic requires challenging portrayals of other groups as enemies, and rebuilding trust.
A third explanation focuses on struggles over justice and political power. Dr Genauer pointed to tensions involving Kurdish communities, Israel and Palestine, foreign intervention, and domestic demands for political freedom and economic equity. The Arab uprisings raised the question of whether removing political leaders results in lasting improvements to people’s lives. The outcomes, she observed, have been uneven.
Possible paths ahead
Dr Genauer assessed a return to full-scale combat as unlikely in the short term, though its consequences could be severe. The collapse of a government or political leadership could bring major change, but its effects would depend on what followed. A frozen conflict, marked by intermittent strikes and short-term agreements, appears to be the most probable scenario. A ceasefire might reduce immediate violence but, without a lasting settlement, the underlying disputes are likely to remain unresolved.
Report by Samin Rezaei, AIIA NSW Intern
Speaker Dr Jessica Genauer centre, AIIA NSW Intern Samin Rezaei left and AIIA NSW President Ian Lincoln right.
