NATO is drafting a strategy designed to defeat a potential Russian attack on its eastern flank quickly and decisively by combining conventional military power with drones and artificial intelligence.
The document, titled “Theory of Victory,” is being developed under NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Gen. Alexus Grynkewich and is expected to be presented in Poland on Monday, Oct. 12, Bloomberg reported.
Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.
Bloomberg reviewed an unclassified version of the document, which is intended to clarify how NATO would respond if Russian forces entered the territory of an alliance member.
The strategy remains a planning document rather than an indication that NATO believes a Russian conventional attack is imminent.
“The Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s theory of victory is simple: maintain NATO’s advantage,” Grynkewich’s spokesperson, Col. Martin O’Donnell, told Bloomberg.
O’Donnell declined to discuss operational details but said the alliance needed to prepare now to deter aggression and prevail if attacked. He also stressed that NATO remained a “purely defensive” alliance.
Drones and AI would support conventional forces
Under the proposed strategy, NATO would initially seek to stop an incursion using land forces and capabilities developed through its Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative.
These would include low-cost drones, minimally crewed systems and AI-assisted targeting integrated with conventional weapons and military units.
Other Topics of Interest
Russian Authorities Won’t Confirm Pneumonic Plague Outbreak in Central Siberia
Russian officials insist there is no evidence that plague researcher Darya Shipilova died from plague, despite local media reports that she was fatally infected with pneumonic plague, the disease’s most lethal form.
After securing freedom of movement, allied forces would attempt to disrupt and destroy the enemy’s command-and-control structure, with the aim of defeating the attacking forces before they could establish a lasting foothold on NATO territory.
The plan emphasizes avoiding unintended provocations while demonstrating enough military readiness to convince an adversary that an attack could not succeed.
It also covers hybrid threats – hostile actions such as sabotage, cyberattacks, interference with infrastructure and covert operations that remain below the threshold of open warfare.
Russia has reportedly ordered its intelligence services to intensify hybrid operations across NATO and EU countries, including possible sabotage against military facilities, critical infrastructure and communications systems.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said there are currently no indications that Russia is preparing a conventional assault on the alliance. However, European governments expect Moscow’s hybrid campaign to continue and potentially intensify.
NATO applies lessons from Ukraine
The strategy reflects lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, where inexpensive drones, electronic warfare and rapidly updated software have transformed even frontline 2D battlefield operations into 3D-plus battlespace operations.
NATO has already been testing drones, unmanned ground vehicles, counter-drone equipment and new communications systems under the Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative.
The alliance has also explored an AI-assisted automated defensive zone along its borders with Russia and Belarus. The proposed system would use interconnected sensors, drones and weapons to detect hostile movements while reducing the number of soldiers required to monitor exposed areas.
In July, NATO members agreed to invest more than $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities over five years. The alliance is also developing a counter-drone marketplace and plans to train five times as many military drone operators by the end of 2027.
Allies face spending and force decisions
The proposal comes as European NATO members sharply increase defense expenditure but debate how to divide funding between tanks, artillery and other conventional weapons and newer technologies demonstrated in Ukraine.
The US reportedly sent allies a questionnaire during the summer asking about their defense spending and support for President Donald Trump’s policies as Washington considered reducing some American military assets assigned to Europe.
The questionnaire also asked whether NATO members could contribute additional forces to Grynkewich’s defense plans.
“Theory of Victory” is therefore intended not only to describe a possible military response but also to show governments what forces and technologies they would need to finance before a crisis begins.
The initiative comes amid growing concern about Russian drone incursions, sabotage and airspace violations along NATO’s eastern flank. Rutte has said the alliance deliberately keeps the precise threshold for activating Article 5 ambiguous, preventing adversaries from calculating how far they can escalate without triggering a collective response.