That does not mean other countries bordering the Baltic Sea are safe.
“There is a significant risk that this activity will spread to other countries in the Baltic Sea region,” Edström warned.
Mikael Frisell, director general of Sweden’s civil defense agency, stressed that countries must prepare for even the most severe scenarios, including bombings, assassinations and damage to critical infrastructure.
NATO Seeks to Avoid Being Provoked
The EBU investigation also examines NATO’s response to hybrid attacks.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Russia’s hybrid activities are intended to intimidate Western countries and weaken their support for Ukraine.

Schkeuditz, Germany, October 18, 2026. Investigators are collecting evidence at a security fence at Leipzig-Halle Airport after a car crashed through the fence. The circumstances surrounding the incident are the subject of the investigation. Photo: Imago/ScanPix
Rutte said NATO should not respond to provocations in ways that deliver the outcome Russia wants. In his view, the alliance must respond where necessary while avoiding unwarranted escalation.
The Actual Number May Be Higher
The journalists behind the EBU investigation emphasize that incidents documented through public sources do not provide a complete picture of Russia’s hybrid activities.
The investigation’s broader dataset covered hundreds of reports from 17 European countries. Incidents were assessed both by their nature and by the evidence linking them to Russia.
Russia has repeatedly denied involvement in sabotage and hybrid attacks in Europe. Moscow’s Foreign Ministry has, in turn, accused Western countries of waging a hybrid war against Russia.
An earlier investigation by SVT and the EBU, published last year, identified 60 hybrid attacks linked to Russia in 2024 and 2025.
Although this year’s 54 incidents indicate intense activity over a much shorter period, the two investigations do not support a precise conclusion about how quickly the number of attacks is growing without further comparison of their counting methods.
