ENTSOG has published its Winter Supply Outlook 2026/27 with Summer 2027 Overview and Winter Supply Review 2025/26.
The Winter Supply Outlook assesses the adequacy of the European gas infrastructure to secure gas supplies throughout the forthcoming winter season, under a range of demand and supply conditions. The analysis covers the period from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027 and includes an overview of Summer 2027.
Europe is entering the winter with historically low storage levels while observing higher and more volatile global gas prices. Consequently, the report includes an assessment of how the European gas system would respond under different LNG availability scenarios for the upcoming winter, complemented by an overview of storage refilling during next summer.
For the first time, Ukraine’s complete gas system topology is incorporated in the modelling perimeter. The assessment also examines the disruption of the largest offshore infrastructure supplying continental Europe and the disruption of all Algerian imports, in both cases assuming no Russian pipeline supply.
Main findings
- EU underground gas storage facilities were 72% filled as of 1 October 2026, following a challenging injection season. Given the important role of storage in meeting winter demand and supporting security of supply, continued injections at the beginning of the winter, together with close monitoring of storage and system conditions, are encouraged.
- Storage remains a cornerstone of Europe’s winter preparedness. It covered approximately 26% of EU gas consumption during winter 2025/26 and around 30% during 2024/25. Sufficient stocks throughout the winter remain important for both the current season and the subsequent refilling period.
- European gas infrastructure remains sufficiently flexible to meet demand, with European LNG regasification capacity of approximately 1,600 TWh per winter season/~145bcm, which can partially compensate for lower storage levels at the beginning of the withdrawal season and support meeting winter demand.
- Maintaining strong LNG deliveries throughout the winter remains important to support the European gas balance and preserve storage levels. If LNG availability remains limited, storage levels could fall well below 30% by the end of the winter, increasing impact in the event of potential cold spells later in the season and may constrain the ability to refill during the following summer.
“Consistent with previous assessments, Europe enters this season with a resilient gas infrastructure, providing a strong foundation for security of supply. Coming into winter, this outlook highlights that every additional molecule available today, either stored or via LNG, strengthens Europe’s position not only for the months ahead, but also for the next storage-filling season. Regional disparities remain, particularly for landlocked countries in Central and Eastern Europe and South-Eastern Europe that may face greater challenges in accessing sufficient LNG supplies,” Piotr Kuś, ENTSOG General Director, commented.
To complement the Supply Outlook report, ENTSOG also carried out a review of the previous winter to increase knowledge of seasonal dynamics of supply and demand.
Security of supply in winter 2026-2027
ACER’s latest gas Monitoring Report looks at developments during the 2026 gas summer season and what they could mean for security of supply in winter 2026-2027.
In summer 2026, disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows linked to the conflict in the Middle East, low gas storage levels after winter 2025-2026 and slower refilling contributed to tighter supply and pushed the EU’s gas prices higher.
Key trends for the upcoming period
- EU gas stocks remain below historical levels after a slow summer refill. At the end of winter 2025-2026 underground gas storage levels reached 28% of capacity, down from 34% a year earlier. By 21 October 2026, EU storage stood at 75%.
- Refilling storage has become more expensive. The upper bound estimated cost of refilling storage in 2026 reached €27 billion, while the average cost of injected gas was the second highest in the past decade. The conflict in the Middle East contributed to higher gas prices.
- EU reliance on US LNG continued to grow, as Qatari and Russian supplies fell. US LNG now accounts for around 30% of total EU gas supply, and total Russian gas around 11%. Russian LNG imports are 2% lower than in summer 2025, while Russian pipeline imports fell by 3%. The total EU LNG imports fell by 14%. No significant volumes of Qatari LNG reached the EU in summer 2026.
- Gas prices rose as Europe competed for LNG in a tighter global market. Spot EU hub prices closed to near EUR 90/MWh mid-October 2026.
- The Middle East conflict added an estimated €18-33 billion to Europe’s gas import bill for the same quantity of gas. These additional costs are spread across the gas value chain, affecting household and industrial consumers and driving up electricity prices. Disrupted Qatari exports through the Strait of Hormuz increased EU reliance on other suppliers, especially the USA.
- Hot weather and droughts during summer increased demand for gas-fired power generation. Gas generation rose by nearly 9% over the gas summer period and by 20% in August compared to the same period in 2025.
- A tighter winter supply balance: The EU will enter the winter with lower overall storage levels than the nine-year average. Gas demand is around 20% lower since the 2022 gas crisis, increasing the relative value of current storage levels. Weather-driven demand will be impacting the gas storage stocks’ evolution.
- The EU is expected to continue to face international competition for securing LNG imports: The EU and Asia will continue to compete for flexible spot LNG cargoes during the heating season, possibly increasing exposure to price pressure and volatility.
- The EU’s winter prospects may lead to higher LNG needs: The actual level of LNG imports needed will ultimately depend on, inter alia, the severity of the winter weather and gas demand. In the current context, additional LNG imports are mainly to come from the USA in view of reduced Qatari supply and the Russian LNG phase-out from January 2027.