Diplomacy or war? Qatar signals Iran breakthrough as US warns Gulf states to prepare

Conflicting reports have emerged in the Arab world and the United States over the past 24 hours about what may unfold between Washington and Tehran in the coming week. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly warned that he intends to bring the war with Iran to an end, one way or another, after the midterm elections, said Friday that he had time. But reports Friday night indicated that the United States had instructed Gulf states to prepare for the possibility of fighting resuming as early as next week. Meanwhile, the Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported Saturday morning that a breakthrough had been reached in talks mediated by Qatar.

The Qatari report, citing unidentified sources, said that “a U.S. delegation will join the talks in Doha to negotiate directly with Iran.”

Footage from yesterday: Oil tanker ‘on fire’ in the Strait of Hormuz

Saudi channels Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported overnight that they had obtained a draft proposal being discussed by mediators. The purported draft has not been confirmed by any of the parties, including Qatar. According to the reports, it includes a preliminary Iranian commitment regarding the future of its nuclear stockpile; discussions on arrangements to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days; daily talks on confidence-building measures between Iran and the United States; an agreed timetable for implementing commitments by both countries; and a possible role for China as a guarantor of any agreement.

“Any Iranian action regarding its nuclear program will be met by a corresponding U.S. action on sanctions. Clear procedures will be established to address any delays or noncompliance by Iran,” the Saudi channels claimed. “Neither Iran nor the United States will be required to make concessions without receiving a corresponding commitment.” The reports also referred to “a clear definition of Iran’s and the United States’ obligations at every stage of the agreement.”

The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, which is affiliated with Hezbollah, reported Saturday, citing “informed sources,” that Iran does not oppose mutual commitments regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the naval blockade. According to the report, Iran’s reservations concern the clause on nuclear concessions, under which Tehran would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to its nuclear facilities. In return, Washington would lift some sanctions and release some frozen Iranian assets. Tehran has repeatedly insisted that any negotiations over its nuclear program would take place only after a formal declaration ending the war and concrete steps to that effect.

נשיא ארה"ב טראמפ בעצרת ב דרום קרוליינה 29 באוקטובר

US President Donald Trump

(Photo: AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

The reports of negotiations and a possible breakthrough stand in contrast, to varying degrees, with a growing number of reports in the United States suggesting that Washington is preparing to resume the war, potentially as early as next week. U.S. network MS NOW reported Friday that the Trump administration had informed its Gulf allies that they should prepare for a “short and swift” round of fighting that could begin as early as Nov. 4, the day after the midterm elections. Three senior Gulf officials provided the information to the network.

However, Trump said Friday night that talks between the two sides were continuing. “There are talks. They want to talk. They keep talking. We have time, frankly,” he told reporters at the White House. He added that the conflict with Iran was “not a typical war” and claimed it was not imposing significant costs on American taxpayers. He also repeated his assertion that the United States had eliminated the nuclear threat posed by Iran. “I spent a lot of money in order to get rid of a nuclear weapon, which we’ve done,” he said.

Earlier Friday, in an interview with Kansas City radio station KCMO, Trump expressed optimism about ending the conflict. “It will end soon,” he declared, without explaining how. He emphasized that Washington’s central condition for ending the war remained a guarantee that Iran would never possess a nuclear weapon. His remarks came just days before the U.S. midterm elections, scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3. Trump has previously made clear that he would not order new strikes against Iran before the elections but has stopped short of promising not to resume military operations afterward.

According to an Associated Press report this week, U.S. officials warned several Middle Eastern countries and Washington’s allies of possible renewed strikes against Iran after the elections. The countries were also asked to prepare for potential Iranian retaliation, including attacks on energy facilities and other critical infrastructure across the region. However, two diplomats familiar with the matter stressed that Trump had not yet made a final decision on whether to resume the strikes.