With the Nov. 3, 2026 midterm election approaching, Grinnell professors say the level of Democratic turnout and the persuasion of independent voters will determine the results, in an environment shaped by President Trump’s low approval rating and economic pessimism.
New data from the October 2026 Grinnell College Poll, conducted nationwide with market research company YouGov, shows several measures indicating a steep hill to climb for the Republican party. According to the poll, only 35 percent of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of his job. Among independents, Trump’s approval rating is 22 percent.
Peter Hanson, professor of political science and director of the Grinnell College National Poll, said the poll’s primary mission is to study the health of American democracy during an age of global populism. The poll also gives students in the class Public Attitudes on American Democracy a hands-on experience analyzing survey data. Hanson said the findings highlight that Trump’s unpopularity and the economy are particularly influential to this election.
In the poll, the largest share of 39 percent of respondents expect the U.S. economy to be worse over the next 12 months, while only 22 percent expect it to be better and 27 percent expect it to stay about the same.
“Inflation is high,” Hanson said. “Interest rates are high. Gas prices have skyrocketed because of the war in Iran. And for that reason, voters are deeply, deeply concerned about the economy, and that is reflected in our numbers.”
Hanson added, “Elections are won on two things — turnout and persuasion. And my guess is that Democrats are going to win the battle of turnout. And in terms of the battle of persuasion, that’s mostly taking place among independents, and because of the state of the economy and President Trump’s approval rating, Democrats have an advantage there as well.”
Courtney Nava, professor of political science and expert in political psychology, said that independent voters’ negative outlook on the future of the economy is nearly identical to Democrats’. In the poll, 53 percent of independents and 54 percent of Democrats expect the economy to worsen over the next year, compared to just 15 percent of Republicans.
“That could help explain part of this movement toward Democrats and why Democrats are having such a high likelihood of winning, especially the House,” said Professor Nava. “Even the Senate is leaning Democrat, and the Iowa governorship is leaning Democrat. And I think a lot of it could be because of those economic perceptions, especially amongst independents.”
However, Nava still said a favorable shift for Democrats is due to widespread voter fatigue with both parties rather than satisfaction with the current Democratic party.
“I’ve never seen so much dissatisfaction with both parties,” Nava said. “A lot of the time, when people are really dissatisfied with Republicans, they like Democrats better, or vice versa. And we’re not really seeing that. It’s more that people just don’t like all of it.”
During an anti-establishment fervor, Nava said, certain candidates can carve lanes for themselves by distinguishing their individual candidacy from both parties.
“The people that have been really successful, like Rob Sand, run against both parties,” Nava said. “He’s not out here saying he’s pro-Democrat. He’s running as a Democrat, but his statements and positions distance himself from Democrats.”
“I think it really makes sense for this moment in a way that it wouldn’t have made sense necessarily, especially in 2018, the last time Trump had a midterm election,” said Nava. “Running against Democrats was a lot less successful then.”
From a historical perspective, Professor of History Sarah Purcell said that midterm backlashes against an unpopular president during wartime or inflation are extremely common in the modern era, drawing parallels to the Democratic wave of 2006, which President George W. Bush famously called a “thumping,” as well as the “shellacking” President Barack Obama described his party had in 2010.
Still, Purcell said the 2026 midterms stand out due to the current Congress passing minimal legislation and ceding power to the executive branch.
“He has really, really exercised outsized power for the presidency, with very little coordination or pushback from Congress,” Purcell said of Trump. “It’s almost like Congress has just laid down and played dead.”
Professor of Sociology Sharon Quinsaat, who studies social movements, said youth voters and movements focused on challenging establishment incumbents are focusing on affordability in this polarized midterm election.
“They may have the education, but they can’t land a good job, right?” said Professor Quinsaat. “They’re underemployed. They also have student loans, and then issues too that are threatening what they imagine to be their future in 10 to, let’s say, 20 years, right? Climate change, AI, et cetera. So these are the things that resonate with them.”
Professor Purcell said that the future effects of this midterm election could signal changes in how both parties approach political issues and appeal to voters.
“Parties have shifted in the last 100 years,” Purcell said. “These are the kind of circumstances that could cause a party realignment or different factions of parties to go up or down. But I’m not willing to tell you exactly which outcome is going to come from which thing — just that change can definitely happen, and it might come when you least expect it.”