A sector-wide space rally is shrugging off last week’s selloff, but Rocket Lab faces a delayed rocket and an earnings report that could test the momentum. Why are smaller rivals outrunning the headline names?
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Space stocks are turning last week’s post-election selloff into a broader rebound built on company-specific stories. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) stock is at $57.72, up 9% in morning trading. The company reports its Q3 2026 results after the market closes today, November 9, and a record backlog sits against a delayed Neutron rocket.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is at $35.89, up 11%, after the company unveiled a Japanese satellite joint venture with Rakuten. Broader stocks are higher as investors return to artificial intelligence (AI) shares and oil slides, following the NASDAQ Composite’s sharp drop last week on fears of AI regulation after the midterm elections. Smaller space names are climbing just as sharply as AST SpaceMobile, so the move is sector-wide.
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Rocket Lab’s Earnings Setup Meets AST SpaceMobile’s Japan Deal
Rocket Lab guided in August for Q3 revenue of $250 million to $265 million and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) loss of $17 million to $23 million. The company entered the quarter with a record $2.36 billion backlog. CEO Peter Beck stated on the August 10 call that “Launch has never been so constrained.”
The overhang is Neutron, Rocket Lab’s medium-lift rocket, whose first launch slipped to 2027 after voids were found in a carbon composite propellant tank dome. According to a company post on X, the replacement Stage 1 forward dome has been built and cured.
Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile announced on November 9 that they’re forming Rakuten AST, a joint venture to build a direct-to-device satellite network in Japan, with Rakuten Group holding 51% of the voting rights and an AST SpaceMobile subsidiary holding 49%. Under Japan’s J-LEO program, Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile expect the venture to receive up to 148 billion yen, or approximately $1 billion, in government support. AST SpaceMobile plans to supply the satellites, with domestic operations targeted by the end of March 2029.
SpaceX Trails as Smaller Space Peers Outrun Rocket Lab
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock is at $142.68, up 6%, a smaller gain than either headline name. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating on November 9, arguing SpaceX could buy stalled data center projects with power access if the Democrats’ midterm win slows data center permitting, especially in Texas. Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider estimated on November 6 that a Russell 1000 Growth rebalance on December 11 could generate more than $10 billion in passive buying of SpaceX.
Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY) stock is at $23.18, up 12%. Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) stock is at $14.02, up 12%. Intuitive Machines stock is at $11.58, up 11%. All three are outpacing Rocket Lab, which shows the rally reaching well beyond one earnings story.
One tie between the groups runs through Firefly Aerospace, which AST SpaceMobile disclosed on November 6 would supply Miranda engines for Blacklift, a rocket the satellite company plans to build itself. Scale also separates SpaceX, whose $1.88 trillion market value dwarfs every other name in the group.
How Rocket Lab’s Business Model Differs From Its Space Peers
Rocket Lab sells launches on its Electron rocket and HASTE suborbital vehicle while also building satellites and spacecraft components, so it earns money both reaching orbit and supplying what flies there. AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network that links directly to ordinary phones through mobile carrier partners, and it leans on infrastructure and government work until commercial service begins.
SpaceX pairs launch with Starlink broadband and a fast-growing AI business. Firefly Aerospace relies on rockets, lunar landers and government missions, while Planet Labs sells satellite imagery and analytics by subscription. Intuitive Machines focuses on lunar landers, spacecraft manufacturing and national security spacecraft.
What Rocket Lab’s Q3 Report Needs to Show
The next test for Rocket Lab is whether its adjusted EBITDA loss lands inside its guided range and management sets a firmer Neutron date. Electron’s 100th mission, scheduled no earlier than November 14, gives the company another near-term milestone. For SpaceX, Starship Flight 15 is targeted for November 13 as the first attempt to return both Starship and Super Heavy to the launch site.
A clean quarter and a clearer Neutron schedule could help Rocket Lab hold a gain the whole sector is sharing. On the downside, Rocket Lab stock has slipped after some past earnings beats, and continued net losses and reliance on equity raises keep dilution in play. AST SpaceMobile reports its Q3 results after the same close, adding a second test for space shares. Investors researching the stock may want to track how Rocket Lab’s Neutron timeline resolves.
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