The findings suggest renewable energy is beginning to make a measurable dent in emissions growth. The report projects emissions from oil will fall 1.9% this year, largely driving the overall decline in fossil fuel emissions.
But scientists warned against interpreting the figures as evidence the world has turned a corner on climate change.
Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington climate scientist Professor James Renwick said the report contained some positive signs, including a projected fall in emissions from China, the world’s largest emitter.
“The slight drop in total emissions is driven by the Iran war as much as anything, so does not represent a structural response to the problem of climate change,” Renwick said.
Writing for the Conversation, Monash University renewable energy specialist Roger Dargaville reached a similar conclusion, arguing it could take years to determine whether the decline represents a genuine peak in emissions or “just a blip caused by the US-Iran war”.
Dargaville said global emissions have fallen before during major disruptions such as the oil shocks of the 1970s, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, only to rebound later.
While emissions from fossil fuels are set to fall this year, total CO2 emissions are still projected to increase.
The report forecasts emissions from land-use change, including deforestation and peat fires, will rise, pushing overall CO2 emissions from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025 to a record 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026.
Researchers estimate the remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels at 150 billion tonnes, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at current rates.