Global efforts to curb climate change have effectively ceased to yield any further results. For the fifth year running, global warming projections have shown almost no improvement, despite new pledges by governments to cut greenhouse gas emissions. According to estimates by the international research group Climate Action Tracker, even if countries meet their targets for 2030 and 2035, the planet will still be on track for warming of around 2.6°C by the end of the century.
- Global climate efforts have done little to improve warming projections for five years running.
- Under current policies, the Earth’s temperature could rise by 2.7°C by 2100.
- Achieving the targets for 2030 and 2035 will limit projected warming to just 2.6°C.
- Researchers are warning of the risk of the 1.5°C threshold being exceeded for a prolonged period.
- At COP31, countries are calling for a faster reduction in emissions and increased funding for climate programmes.
Five years without any noticeable improvement in weather forecasts
Researchers compared the outcomes of international climate policy following the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Over the next five years, countries managed to reduce the projected warming by the end of the century by approximately one degree.
However, since 2021, this progress has virtually come to a standstill. The positive impact of the development of renewable energy and electric transport is being offset by rising energy consumption, the construction of new fossil fuel power stations and the insufficient rate at which emissions are being reduced.
According to the Climate Action Tracker’s assessment, under current government policy The average global temperature could rise by 2.7°C by 2100 compared with the pre-industrial period. Even if countries fully meet their emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2035, the forecast will be 2.6°C.
A more optimistic scenario, which assumes the fulfilment of all long-term commitments, including the achievement of net-zero emissions, results in a figure of approximately 1.9°C.
The world is at risk of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold for a long time to come
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
The authors of the new report warn that the 1.5°C threshold could be exceeded for the long term from around 2030. The longer temperatures remain above this level, the more difficult it will be to bring them back within a safer range.
The consequences are particularly acute for small island states, which are threatened by rising sea levels. The President of the Marshall Islands Hilda Heine During COP31, she called on countries to refrain from expanding fossil fuel extraction, emphasising the threat this poses to her country’s future.
Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Mottley She also drew attention to the insufficient funding of climate programmes. According to her, wealthy nations must not only promise aid, but also actually allocate funds to countries that are already suffering losses due to climate change.
At COP31, calls are being made to accelerate the reduction of emissions
UN COP31 Conference is taking place in Antalya from 9 to 20 November. Participants are discussing the implementation of national climate plans, the transition to clean energy and support for the countries most vulnerable to climate change.
The Climate Action Tracker has calculated that, in order to limit the temperature rise to below the threshold, global emissions must be reduced by approximately 4 per cent each year until 2030, and by as much as 7 per cent in the first half of the 2030s.
At the same time, researchers also note some positive developments. In 2025, clean electricity generation met the entire additional global demand, whilst China and India are ramping up their use of renewable sources at a record pace. However, these developments are not yet sufficient to ensure a sustainable global reduction in emissions.