It is a question we at Westpac ask ourselves, and we’ve tried to answer it by inviting some of the leading geopolitical, energy, and capital allocation experts from around the world to share their thinking on our problem with our customers at our recent Westpac Strategic Outlook Forum.
The answers we got from these experts, who are too numerous to name in this piece, were global relevance, energy security, leadership, and extending our time horizons.
Increasing our strategic relevance
Distance no longer shields New Zealand from global disruption. Digital networks, cyber threats, fuel crises, climate events and supply-chain shocks travel across all borders. At the same time, established international relationships are increasingly being reassessed through the lenses of security and strategic interest.
The challenge for New Zealand is therefore to move beyond being well regarded to being relevant and, ultimately, essential.
That requires us to look at New Zealand from the outside in. We are often introspective, assessing our opportunities against our own history, domestic constraints, perceptions and political debates. But offshore partners and investors see us differently. They ask what capability we offer, how we complement their strategies, and why a market of our size is worth their attention.
Our reputation may bring us to the table, but our relevance determines whether we are invited to deal.
Every board should be asking: why will the world need our business, and New Zealand, more in five or 10 years than it does today?
To answer this, we must identify the capabilities in which we can become essential, whether in food and agritech, space or renewable energy.
This includes demonstrated progress towards meeting our climate obligations, especially if we want to retain access to lucrative European markets and the shopping baskets of global customers.
This is also where longer-term political and policy certainty matters. Indeed, it was corporate New Zealand’s top concern according to the Mood of the Boardroom. Repeated changes of direction impose costs and delay investment, as do bespoke regulatory settings that make it harder for global investors to understand our economy and the businesses that operate within it.
We are starting to see signs of political maturity emerging, particularly in the public infrastructure space, where there is a bipartisan commitment to end stop-start projects as governments change. That’s a good step, but we need greater strategic policy certainty across more areas of our economy. And perhaps we need to stop thinking of ourselves on the edge of the map and instead as a critical node in the Asia-Pacific region that links the US, Asia, India and South America.
Energy security is economic security
Following relevance, energy security is a major issue, as has been highlighted by the recent fuel crisis. In an increasingly changeable world, energy security is now national security, and it is central to our industrial competitiveness, investment decisions, and economic progress.
This may seem obvious, but our energy policy settings largely look as if they are still based in a globalised world of open borders and free trade – not a fragile and fractious reality we operate in today.
The Iran fuel crisis exposed how vulnerable we are to these kinds of events because we have opted to contract for resilience as opposed to holding safeguard stocks of fuel on shore. This was a cost-driven choice, but one that has left us vulnerable to geopolitical events outside of our control.
Fortunately, we have choices. New Zealand’s renewable electricity base is a major advantage, but more renewable energy generation is needed and from more diverse sources in order to build a more resilient energy system for Aotearoa.
We need a national energy strategy that brings these elements together and integrates energy security with our climate objectives and economic ambitions.
Building greater resilience means drawing on a broader and more diverse mix of homegrown energy. Wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, storage and demand flexibility are important, while emerging new generation sourced from hydrogen and biomass can play complementary roles.
Reliable, competitively priced energy will influence which industries expand here, where data and digital infrastructure are built, and whether exporters can continue to meet the expectations of global customers.
The conditions have changed, so leadership must change
Boards need capability in geopolitical risk, AI governance, climate adaptation, and cyber resilience. These topics no longer sit at the margins of strategy and cannot be delegated entirely to technical specialists, as these issues increasingly affect the core assumptions underpinning operations, asset values, supply chains, reputation and value.
Leadership under uncertainty requires a different mindset, which must be embedded across the organisation. That’s because leaders are “signal generators”, to borrow a phrase from Sir Ashley Bloomfield. They show people what matters and provide enough clarity to act, while being honest about what remains unknown.
These qualities matter because volatility cannot be managed away. The task is to build organisations capable of absorbing disruption, adapting strategy, retaining trust and moving forward, even when the picture is incomplete.
A longer horizon
We don’t have a shortage of ideas or advantages in Aotearoa. Our challenge is moving beyond problem definition and into action.
The prize is a more productive and resilient economy, stronger international relationships, businesses better equipped to navigate disruption, and a stronger proposition for offshore capital.
Achieving it requires us to lift our eyes beyond the next quarter, the next reporting cycle and the next election.
In my role, I see that the businesses and communities making the most progress are those planning over decades, not quarters. Long-term thinking is not a luxury in volatile times. It is what makes good decisions possible when information is incomplete.
Uncertainty does not remove agency. It raises the value of preparedness, strategic clarity and leadership. These observations are not definitive answers but the starting blocks for a conversation about how we, as New Zealand, shape our place in a changing world. At Westpac, we want to help bring the right people and perspectives together to advance that conversation and turn it into action.
Joanna Silver is Head of Sustainable Economic Development at Westpac New Zealand.