Competition: UEFA Nations League, League C, Group 1
Venue: Air Albania Stadium, Tirana
Kickoff: Thursday, November 12, 2026, at 19:45 GMT
Verdict: Albania to win
Best odds: 1.91
Bookmaker: 1xBet
Albania welcomes Finland to Tirana on Thursday with first place still within reach for three teams in Group C1. The host leads the standings with nine points, two ahead of both Finland and Belarus, and has an opportunity to take one rival out of the race for automatic promotion before the final round. Finland, however, already has a win over Albania in this campaign.
Albania
Three victories from four games have put Albania in control of its own promotion prospects. Rolando Maran’s team opened with a 2-0 home win over Belarus, followed that with a 3-0 victory in San Marino and recovered from its defeat in Finland by beating San Marino 2-1 in Tirana.
That last result was closer than Albania would have wanted, particularly against an opponent it had beaten comfortably away from home. Even so, taking maximum points from both home fixtures has given Maran’s side something solid to build on before its toughest test in Tirana so far.
The circumstances of October’s 2-1 defeat in Helsinki deserve attention. Rey Manaj put Albania ahead after four minutes, but goalkeeper Etrit Berisha was dismissed in the 22nd minute. Leo Walta subsequently scored twice from free kicks, turning the match around while the visitor spent more than an hour a player short.
That early dismissal limits how much we can read into the result when assessing Thursday’s return fixture. Albania had made the better start and now has home advantage, although Maran will want greater efficiency in front of goal. The coach highlighted finishing as an area for improvement in his November squad announcement, and Finland’s defensive record suggests his players cannot expect a long succession of clear chances.
Team news
Thomas Strakosha remains unavailable as he continues his recovery, leaving Etrit Berisha, Alen Sherri and Mario Dajsinani as the goalkeepers in the squad. Dinamo City right-back Ysni Ismaili has received his first senior call-up.
Armando Broja, Anis Mehmeti and Marash Kumbulla have not been selected. Maran still has several attacking options, with Manaj, Mirlind Daku, Myrto Uzuni and Cristian Shpendi included. Kristjan Asllani, Ylber Ramadani and Qazim Laçi are also available in midfield.
Finland
Finland arrives with a healthy goal difference and a less convincing attacking record once the individual results are examined.
Seven of its nine group goals came in the away victory over San Marino. The other two were scored against Albania after Berisha’s dismissal, while both meetings with Belarus ended without a Finnish goal. A goalless home draw was followed by a 1-0 away defeat in October, costing Jacob Friis’ team ground in the promotion race.
There is more encouragement at the other end of the pitch. Finland has conceded only twice in four group matches, a record that should give it confidence in its ability to keep Thursday’s contest close. Albania may have to be patient, especially if the opening exchanges produce few opportunities.
Finland finishes the group at home to San Marino, so a positive result in Tirana would leave it with an appealing final fixture. A victory would also take it above Albania. Finding enough attacking quality against a direct rival remains the main concern, although the November squad gives Friis more options than he had during the first four rounds.
Team news
Oliver Antman and Naatan Skyttä return after missing Finland’s opening four Nations League matches. Their availability should give Friis more flexibility in the attacking positions.
Robert Ivanov and Fredrik Jensen are also back after longer absences, while midfielder Luka Hyryläinen has earned his first senior call-up. Walta remains in the squad alongside forwards Joel Pohjanpalo and Benjamin Källman, with Lukas Hradecky among the goalkeeping options.
Key factors to consider
- Albania leads Group C1 with nine points from four matches; Finland has seven.
- Albania has won both home games in this Nations League campaign.
- Finland won the reverse fixture 2-1 after Albania had a player sent off in the 22nd minute.
- Finland has conceded only two goals in four group matches.
- Seven of Finland’s nine group goals came against San Marino, and it failed to score in either meeting with Belarus.
Conclusion
Finland’s defensive record and returning attackers make this a demanding assignment for Albania. There is enough quality in the visiting squad to punish another careless foul or defensive mistake.
Nevertheless, Albania’s home results offer the stronger foundation for a selection. Finland’s difficulties against Belarus also raise doubts about how consistently it can create chances against a well-organized opponent. We expect a close match, with home advantage helping Albania find the decisive goal.
Verdict: Albania to win
Best odds: 1.91
Bookmaker: 1xBet