My gut take is that this result will give Singh some breathing room and provide some validation for the decision to leave the confidence and supply agreement, or at least show it wasn’t a huge mistake. Obviously a win in Montreal would be gravy, but very few leaders get removed for not winning by enough, the NDP vote share has remained largely the same, and this result can help stymie the narrative that organized Labour is abandoning the party en masse.
Admittedly they could’ve lost some ground among union rank-and-file but made up for it through ABC voters who went Liberal in 2021, but again a wins a win.
Next to Reynolds, Polievre may be the most disappointed by tonight (and will be even more so if the Liberals eke out a win too), dual NDP/Liberal defeats would be very easily spun as yet another sign the government has lost their mandate, CPC results tonight are still good but probably much less than they hoped for.
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As of posting [Elections Canada](https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?lang=e) has the NDP up 48.1% to 44.0%.
My gut take is that this result will give Singh some breathing room and provide some validation for the decision to leave the confidence and supply agreement, or at least show it wasn’t a huge mistake. Obviously a win in Montreal would be gravy, but very few leaders get removed for not winning by enough, the NDP vote share has remained largely the same, and this result can help stymie the narrative that organized Labour is abandoning the party en masse.
Admittedly they could’ve lost some ground among union rank-and-file but made up for it through ABC voters who went Liberal in 2021, but again a wins a win.
Next to Reynolds, Polievre may be the most disappointed by tonight (and will be even more so if the Liberals eke out a win too), dual NDP/Liberal defeats would be very easily spun as yet another sign the government has lost their mandate, CPC results tonight are still good but probably much less than they hoped for.