A new poll from the Detroit Regional Chamber shows Michigan respondents’ view of the state’s economy largely depends on the political party for which they support. // Stock photo
Michigan voters are split by political party on the state’s economic direction, but fewer people overall are convinced Michigan is on the economic “right track” since November 2023, according to the findings of the Detroit Regional Chamber’s latest statewide poll released today.
The top reason, according to the survey, for those believing Michigan’s economy is on the wrong track was inflation or cost of goods, with tariffs entering the conversation for the first time.
The chamber, in partnership with The Glengariff Group Inc., polled 600 registered Michigan voters between April 24-28, 2025. It posed questions on topics such as the economy, inflation, tariffs, and democracy.
“Recession fears are up a notable 11 percent across all voters,” says Sandy K. Baruah, president and CEO of the Detroit Regional Chamber. “Extreme political polarization threatens to exacerbate Michigan’s already disproportionate risk to federal policies impacting trade (especially with Canada), manufacturing, and electric vehicles (EVs).
“Our statewide leaders need to rally around a shared vision for Michigan’s competitiveness rather than retreat to their political corners while our growing innovation-based economy takes body blows.”
Richard Czuba, president of The Glengariff Group, says, “Michiganders have become significantly more pessimistic about rising inflation and a potential recession. Democrat and independent voters are sharply more pessimistic while Republican voters are sharply more optimistic. Voters now appear to measure the economy increasingly through the lens of their political affiliation.”
A plurality of voters, according to the poll results, continues to believe Michigan is on the “right track” overall, but shows a notable decline since January 2025, caused by shifts from Strong Democrat and Independent voters. This shift along party lines, along with continued polarization, are consistent themes throughout the poll and demonstrate that voters’ views of the economic and political situation depend on their party affiliation.
Democrats who were optimistic under President Joe Biden are largely pessimistic under President Donald Trump, while Republicans who were pessimistic under Biden are largely optimistic under Trump.
Based on the poll results, there is an increased feeling among voters that the economy is weakening, and those views are directly tied to party affiliation and have shifted since the November 2024 general election. Democratic and Independent voters view a previously growing economy as collapsing. In contrast, Republican voters now see a previously struggling economy as surging, despite little fundamental change in key economic indicators such as the unemployment rate, interest rates, and GDP growth.
Fears of recession have increased by 11 percentage points — from 27.2 percent in January 2025 to 38.2 percent in April 2025 — and have shifted based on party affiliation, reflecting the lack of a shared reality across the political aisle. While still collectively lower than 2023 levels, recession fears are increasing for Democratic and Independent voters, while Republican voters have virtually no expectation of a recession in the next year.
A vast majority of voters “overwhelmingly” believe their current job will be available in five years. Similarly, most say they are doing better or the same economically, are not overly concerned about losing their jobs, and believe good jobs are available. This confidence in job security is in stark contrast to the growing concerns about recession, inflation, and costs, and suggests that any economic impact from tariffs has not hit most voters’ pocketbooks enough to alter their views of job prospects.
Fears of worsening inflation have surged since January 2025, based on the poll results, reinforcing the trend that people’s views on politics now inform their view of the economy, the opposite of what used to be true. Democrats and Independents believe that inflation will get worse, while Republicans believe it will get better.
By a slight majority, voters continue to oppose Trump’s tariffs, but their positions on the tariffs reflect the electorate’s current political polarization. On tariffs, Democratic voters are sharply opposed, Republicans are sharply supportive, and Independents are split down the middle.
Automotive workers appear to be at the epicenter of the political split, with their views on the economy and policy also largely falling along party lines despite their industry being disproportionately impacted by tariffs. The chamber notes the shifting political dynamics that today’s Republican voters are comfortable with tariffs, which are a tax paid by consumers, as opposed to Democrats, who largely oppose tariffs and increased consumer taxes.
A large majority of voters recognize that tariffs are going to increase consumer prices, yet nearly one-third of voters say they still support tariffs despite resulting price increases. What’s more, 9 percent of voters who say that tariffs will be bad for Michigan still support tariffs. Again, party affiliation and winning political arguments appear to be a driving factor in these numbers.
Compared to past trends of voters willing to support policies they may not like for “the greater economic good,” this also reflects a different political dynamic of people willing to vote against their current-day self-interest in order to remain faithful to their chosen political affiliation.
Michigan remains at a disproportionate risk from fluctuating economic policies like tariffs. For example, one in five voters say they have delayed purchases, like vehicles. These views also fall along party lines. Politicization continues to be a growing threat to Michigan’s economy. Democrats and Independents have changed spending patterns due to tariffs, while Republicans have stayed the same.
Many voters in this poll support the idea that tariffs will bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., which is something most can support in some way, according to the chamber. It’s critical, however, that all Michiganders understand the risks and opportunities that come with tariffs, which disproportionately hurt Michigan, say chamber executives.
Of the 17 automotive assembly plants that have been opened in the U.S. since 2004, only four were in Michigan. While it is unclear how many manufacturing jobs tariffs will bring back to the U.S., current trends suggest many of those would not come back to Michigan. The state’s current industry already bears the brunt of the tariff impact, including major downgrades in total U.S. vehicle production estimates for 2025.
“In our ongoing partnership with Richard Czuba and The Glengariff Group, the chamber has learned from Richard’s counsel that it used to be that voters’ opinions of the sitting president were largely based on their views of economic conditions,” Baruah says. “In today’s political environment, however, it seems dynamics have flipped: how strong partisans view the sitting president now strongly impacts their views of the economy.”
To review the full report, visit here.