If they are adopted like most other technologies robotaxis will follow an S-curve. For a while, there will be a small number of them, and then they will very rapidly expand until they are everywhere. When will robotaxis reach the take-off phase?
It's possible it could be very soon. The evidence?
Waymo's robotaxis are safely operating in California and expanding into more areas. Simultaneously, Waymo says they have cracked key insights into making them much better than they already are in 2025.
Waymo robotaxis are pushing into even more California cities
Are robotaxis ready for their S-curve takeoff? Waymo's driver-free fleet is expanding in California, and it claims it can improve them further.
byu/lughnasadh inFuturology
1 Comment
Yes but not because of Waymo. More because of Tesla and chinese solutions that are actually scalable.
Waymos tech is great, don’t get me wrong, but their cars cost $150k+ with all the sensors, and pre mapping and curating everything is slow and requires a lot of work.
Tesla has production cost of ~$30k for a car with all the sensors and compute. Bloomberg estimated 1/7 of the cost of Waymo, because Tesla owns the entire stack hardware and software. Plus Tesla has 3B miles of driving data to train, Waymo has around 22M.
It’s not even close in terms of scalability.