THE BATTLE OF SYMBOLIC MIGRATION CRACKDOWNS
ROCKY RELATIONS: Ties between Germany and Poland have been strained for quite a long time.
Mentioning the war: For one, in Poland, it’s been proven politically expedient for right-wing populists to whip up anti-German sentiment by exploiting historical resentments, namely Nazi Germany’s 1939 invasion and exceptionally brutal occupation of their country. The previous Polish government under the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) eagerly stoked those grievances, demanding the Germans pay reparations to the tune of €1.3 trillion. (Germany’s answer, in short, was Nein.)
“Change through trade”: Another longstanding and major sticking point has been Germany’s pursuit of close economic ties with Russia up until Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, despite repeated warnings from Polish and other eastern European leaders that the policy was fatally misguided.
Energy clash: Even as far back as 2006, Poland’s then defense minister, Radosław Sikorski — now the country’s foreign minister — compared plans for the first Nord Stream pipeline to bring Russian gas directly to Germany to the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact — the nonaggression agreement between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. “Poland has a particular sensitivity to corridors and deals above our head,” Sikorski said at the time.
Beginning again: When German conservative Friedrich Merz was sworn in as chancellor in May, he promised a fresh start in relations with Poland. Merz seemed to have the ideal partner in Poland’s centrist prime minister, Donald Tusk. In 2024, Tusk took the politically risky move of dropping the reparations demands of the previous PiS government in a bid to improve ties with Berlin. And the two leaders have a lot in common when it comes to their hawkish views on the need to aid Ukraine and drastically bolster Europe’s defenses to deter Putin.
Almost a sure thing: On Merz’s first full day in office, he traveled to Warsaw to declare a fresh start in relations between the two nations. “In the heart of Europe, a close German-Polish partnership must be a matter of course,” Merz wrote on X at the time. “We are working on this with all our might!”
Symbolpolitik: But Merz managed to screw things up almost immediately in an attempt to fulfill — or at least to appear to fulfill — a campaign promise to crackdown on immigration from Day One in office under pressure from his main political foes, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, now the largest opposition party in parliament. Just days after Merz took office, his interior minister announced stepped-up checks on Germany’s borders and a policy of turning away asylum seekers. The new measures, the minister said, were a “signal to the world” that Germany is getting tough on migration.
German bluffing: The border crackdown has proven to be mostly an exercise in political theater as it has made only a nominal difference in the number of asylum seekers denied entry into Germany, according to migration experts. According to German police union figures, the new checks led to 160 asylum applicants being rejected at the border in the first four weeks. “Paradoxically, the whole thing is a bluff anyway,” migration expert Gerald Knaus told German newspaper Welt this week. A German court also found it to be against EU law, though Merz’s government said it will continue the policy anyway.
Gift to PiS: But the border crackdown did have the very real effect of angering regular Poles by creating traffic at border crossings that are supposed to be free and open under Schengen. This provided a huge political boon to PiS politicians in Poland, who have suggested the Germans are returning illegal immigrants to their country en masse. “Poland’s western border is ceasing to exist,” Mariusz Błaszczak, a senior PiS politician, warned last week, blaming Tusk’s “servility toward Berlin.”
Tit for tat: Tusk, under political pressure to act, this week announced retaliatory border checks. Warsaw’s patience with Berlin “is becoming exhausted,” Tusk said as he announced the imposition of checks on his country’s borders with Germany, and also with Lithuania.
Moral to the story: Merz needs good relations with Poland, a rising military power, to meet his goal of making Europe less dependent on American power for its defense. But his restart with Poland is in danger as both sides give in to domestic pressures. At the same time, Merz’s government has shown it is willing to ignore existing European asylum law and weaken Schengen largely for the optics of “sending a message to the world.”
The art of the possible: Merz says he is working toward practical, joint EU solutions on everything from migration to defense — what some might call an attempt at realpolitik. But he better be careful that his symbolic politics don’t undermine him first.
MERZ’S AWKWARD APPEAL TO FEMALE LEADERS
MANSPLAINING: During a surprise appearance at the anniversary event of a female leadership association in Berlin this week, Merz announced he’d take up the patronage of the organization. That was a win for both the association and for Merz, who has been struggling to win over the female electorate. “We all know, I know it from my political and professional experience, that mixed teams work better,” Merz said in his well-received speech, judging from the loud applause by the mostly female audience.
Thing is, Merz himself is surrounded by men. Just one woman is employed at the highest level in the chancellery; and from the seven departments within the chancellery, only one is led by a woman (organigram here). During his speech, Merz pointed out that 47 percent of minister posts in his government are filled by women, which, he said, was “significantly above the previous federal governments, and above all significantly above the proportion of women in the German Bundestag.” He, however, mostly has his junior coalition partner, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), to thank for that: four out of seven SPD cabinet posts are filled by woman, while it is only four out of 11 for the conservatives.
A little cringe: While Merz underscored there was still work to be done, he also shared some tips. “We men have a better talent and ability to form networks and to support each other,” the 69-year-old politician said, citing his own experience. “You also have to help each other,” he told the audience, “and you have to offer each other positions, when it comes to filling vacancies.” Merz went on to say that when applying for high-ranking jobs, women should “have a little more self-confidence in themselves, in their own person.”
IN OTHER NEWS
GERMANY-UK TREATY: Merz and British premier Keir Starmer will sign a wide-ranging treaty on July 17 in London that includes a mutual assistance clause in the case of a threat to either nation, we reported this week, based on the accounts of five people with knowledge of the process. While the treaty will likely reaffirm the commitment of both nations to NATO as the cornerstone of their collective defense, the clause’s inclusion underlines the push for European allies to work more closely on security as the U.S. pulls back from the transatlantic defense alliance. Full story here.
MERCRON’S FIRST EU WIN: Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron joined forces to hobble Europe’s ethical supply chain dream in what some argue highlights a new era for the historical Franco-German relationship focused on a sharp pro-business agenda. In the wake of a Franco-German push, EU countries agreed in record time on a dramatically watered-down version of the new EU rules aimed at boosting supply chain transparency. Full behind-the-scenes story by our POLITICO colleagues here.
FAR RIGHT TARGETS PRIDE: Extreme-right groups in Germany are mobilizing against Pride events scheduled for this summer, planning counter demonstrations that purport to celebrate traditional, heterosexual relationships. The targeting of these events — of which some 200 are to take place over the coming months — is part of a larger wave of radicalization within German society that is particularly affecting the country’s youth, authorities say. Full story here.
THE WEEK AHEAD
NATO CELEBRATION: To celebrate the 70th birthday of Germany as a NATO member, the chief of the alliance, Mark Rutte, will meet Merz in the chancellery on Wednesday. Both will later give speeches at a celebratory event at the defense ministry in the evening.
MERZ FACES QUESTIONS: In the last weekly session before parliament’s summer recess, lawmakers will for the first time question Merz on Wednesday in a government inquiry lasting around one hour.
MERZ IN ROME: Merz is to travel to Rome on Friday to attend the Ukraine Recovery Conference, where he’ll also give a speech. The conference is aimed at providing broad-based international support for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Thanks to Jan Cienski.
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