Humans still crush bots at forecasting, scribble-based forecasting, Kalshi reaches $2B valuation | Forecasting newslettter #7/2025

This is a post summarizing developments in the forecasting community in the last month. Forecasting here is a tradition of knowledge focused on judgmental numeric probability estimates, in places like prediction markets (Polymarket, Manifold Markets) or forecasting platforms (Metaculus, Good Judgment Open). It could be thought of a more specific sub-branch of Futurology.

Two books to dig into this branch might be Pihll Tetlock’s *Superforecasting* and E.T. Jaynes’ *Probability Theory: The Logic of Science*.