“While ex-Cyclone Tam will likely have some impact in Northland and Whangārei, crop estimates are expected to be similar to what was last harvested.”
Siebert said export revenue was forecast to decrease marginally (0.3%) to $107 million in the year to June 2026.
He said growers would currently be testing their fruit maturity, ensuring export compliance steps were undertaken, and beginning discussions with their packhouse and exporter as harvest approached.
“Global demand for avocados is increasing as consumers seek healthy fats and plant-based nutrition, with New Zealand uniquely positioned to supply avocados during off-peak seasons.”
With New Zealand’s seasonal competitor Western Australia expecting a large crop for the 2025-26 season, Siebert said the industry was prepared to direct increasing volumes to North America, with reduced volumes to the east coast of Australia.
Diverse markets
“Exporters continuing to grow relationships in a diverse range of markets will support the long-term growth of the sector.”
Siebert said that this year, New Zealand supplied the most diverse set of countries yet.
Export revenue from Australia increased 320% to $63m in the year ending March 31, 2025, when compared with the previous season, because of a higher number of export fruit being available.
The North American markets delivered strong growth in New Zealand’s second season of exporting to the region.
Export revenue from Canada increased 619% to $3.8m and from the United States it was up 596% to $500,000 in the year to March 2025.
Sibert didn’t believe proposed tariffs would greatly affect the American market.
“Mexico is the dominant supplier of avocados to the US, and they, along with Canada, have exemptions from the 10% baseline tariff for goods [like fresh produce] that meet the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement [USMCA].”
He said the new 10% tariff was an “ad valorem” rate – a percentage of the total value – calculated on the free on board sale price of New Zealand avocados entering the US and will be in addition to the US11.2c/kg (18.6c/kg) import duty that has been in place for several years.
Sibert said that excluding Mexico, avocados from New Zealand were on a “reasonably equal playing field” with most other origins entering the US for the season ahead.
Asian markets continue to grow in importance, with export revenue up 96% to $40m in the year ending March 2025.
Domestic sales
New Zealand’s avocado industry is shaped by a balance between export demand and domestic consumption.
“The ratio of export versus domestic volumes varies over time based on a number of factors,” Siebert said.
“Often this is dominated by two main factors, export pack-out rates influenced by storm events and seasonal growing conditions and, secondly, whether the industry as a whole is having a high or lower fruit production season, a predisposition that avocados [and mangos] experience worldwide due to the natural phenology of trees influenced by environmental factors, tree management practices and cultivar characteristics.
“Over the last two decades, we have seen around 70% exported, but with a growing consumption in the local market, this can be close to 50% in more recent seasons.
“Fruit entering the domestic market, primarily as a result of export packing, goes through retail, e-commerce and local sales, with lower-grade fruit being sent for processing to produce avocado cooking oil and other value-added products.”
Sibert said the past two seasons (2023 and 2024) resulted in export volumes falling because of weather events.
“Cyclones Dovi [2022] and Gabrielle [2023] both hit avocado-growing regions, damaging fruit and causing major impacts on export volumes.
“The challenges of the past season’s La Nina weather patterns are now in the rear-view mirror, and more favourable conditions have returned.”
Sibert said optimal conditions had led to a large, high-quality crop for the current season.
As a result, export volumes increased 190% to 3.9 million trays in the season ending June 30, 2025.
Half of New Zealand’s avocado hectares in production are in the Bay of Plenty, with around 45% in Northland.