Officials in Tbilisi are cheering US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Armenia and Azerbaijan, even though the creation of a new transit corridor envisioned under the deal threatens to relegate Georgia to geopolitical and economic irrelevance in the eyes of the West.
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze hailed the provisional Armenian-Azerbaijani accord soon after it was signed at the White House on August 8, describing it as a “landmark peace deal and opening a new era of stability and economic development in the region.” He went on to say that “Georgia has always stood for regional peace and cooperation — and will continue to support it unwaveringly.”
The Georgian Foreign Ministry echoed Kobakhidze’s line, while also heaping praise on Trump personally for his “outstanding contribution and efforts… in the process of resolving the protracted conflict that has persisted for decades in the South Caucasus.”
Outside of ruling Georgian Dream party circles, many Georgians see the peace deal as a bittersweet development. While they welcome the prospect of an enduring peace between their closest neighbors, the deal also serves as a stinging reminder that their country, once labeled a beacon of democracy and progress, is now largely an afterthought amid Georgian Dream’s abandonment of the European Union accession process and the party’s efforts to foster closer ties to Russia and China.
“Georgia should have been an active architect of this new regional reality, shaping peace, driving connectivity, and securing our shared future with allies, but the pro-Russian Georgian Dream has left the country isolated from progress and prosperity,” wrote Giorgi Gakharia, a former Georgian Dream prime minister who is now in opposition.
Other government critics see irony in the fact that Georgian Dream officials are praising the deal as a way to improve regional trade when, in recent months, the government has faced criticism from Yerevan for deliberately disrupting Armenian trade, allegedly at Russia’s behest.
Until recently, Georgia was seen as a key link in the Middle Corridor, the Trans-Caspian trade route connecting Europe to Asia. But under the Trump peace plan, Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to serve as the prime conduit for East-West trade in the Caucasus. The centerpiece of the plan is the creation of a new transit corridor connecting Azerbaijan proper to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenian territory. If built out to its fullest potential, the corridor would likely leave Georgia on the outside of Middle Corridor trade expansion looking in, making it harder for Tbilisi to attract investment while significantly reducing the importance of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway.
The proposed corridor, dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, must clear some significant hurdles if it is ever to become a reality, namely determined opposition from Iran and Russia. Both countries are especially concerned about a provision in the peace deal that calls for American management of TRIPP. The specifics of who will operate the corridor and how it will function remain to be worked out.
During an August 19 visit to Armenia, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian repeatedly voiced concerns about an American role in TRIPP’s operations.
“Governance in the Caucasus region must remain Caucasian – outsourcing the resolution of Caucasus issues to extra-regional forces will complicate” regional stability, Pezeshkian said.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is trying to finesse the situation, needing to not only assuage Iranian and Russian worries, but overcome significant domestic opposition to TRIPP. He told Pezeshkian, for example, that speculation that American private military contractors would be providing security for the corridor was wrong: Armenian forces, not American, will be responsible for ensuring the route’s security.
“Roads passing through Armenia will be under the exclusive jurisdiction of Armenia, and security will be provided by Armenia, not by any third country,” the AFP news agency quoted Pashinyan as saying during the Iranian president’s visit.
At an August 21 news conference, the Armenian prime minister again sought to downplay an American role in TRIPP, saying that a to-be-created Armenian-American entity will only manage “commercial management” of the trade route.
Back in Georgia, the advent of TRIPP stands to complicate Georgian Dream’s domestic position as the country prepares to hold municipal elections. Georgian Dream officials have long advanced a narrative that the West needs Georgia more than Georgia needs the West. That line is now faltering in the face of new regional dynamics.
For the election campaign, Georgian Dream is falling back on another long-used meme — that the United States and European Union supposedly want to open a ‘second front’ in Georgia, embroiling the country in what government officials portray as a proxy war between the West and Russia playing out in Ukraine. Under this scenario, Georgian Dream leaders cast themselves as the sole defenders of Georgian stability.
The party recently rolled out a campaign video contrasting images of devastated Ukrainian cities with footage of green parks in Tbilisi, branding Georgian Dream as the guarantors of peace.
By Eurasianet
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