Bulgaria is set to launch a new tool to gauge societal stress with the creation of the Public Tension Index, designed to reflect levels of calm or anxiety within the population and their broader impact on politics and the economy.
The index will be developed collaboratively by the Center for Analysis and Crisis Communications (CACC) and the sociological agency Myara, with data and analytical support provided by the Sensika platform. Organizers describe it as a robust diagnostic and predictive instrument, noting that public tension directly influences reactions to financial issues, domestic incidents, crime, and political developments. Understanding these patterns, they say, enables institutions and organizations to prevent or better manage potential crises.
Dr. Alexander Hristov, Chairman of the Central Committee of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and Arts, together with Parvan Simeonov, Manager of Myara, emphasized that elevated public tension often accelerates crises and amplifies their consequences, affecting society, institutions, and business alike.
The index will be calculated using 21 weighted indicators grouped into three categories. The first, “statehood and environment,” considers political conditions and external shocks. The second, “well-being,” measures financial and psychological health as well as attitudes toward institutions. The third, “publicity,” tracks expressions of satisfaction or discontent, including protests and social media activity.
Scores will range from 0 to 10, with the following scale: 0–3.99 indicates low, fully controlled risk; 4–5.99 represents medium, well-managed risk; 6–7.99 signifies high, challenging-to-control risk; and 8–10 reflects a very high, nearly unmanageable situation.
The Public Tension Index will be calculated quarterly, allowing for comparisons over time and insights into evolving societal trends. The inaugural index for Bulgaria, covering the third quarter of 2025, is scheduled for release in early October.
Results will be made publicly available, while institutions, organizations, and businesses can subscribe for detailed analyses of socio-political conditions and levels of public tension across the country.