Soccer / World Cup – Qualification Europe
05/09/2025 – 19:45
Italy
VS
Estonia
Odds updated on September 4, 2025 at 4:45 pm
Italy will be determined to revive their World Cup 2026 qualifying hopes when they host Estonia in Bergamo on Friday evening. Trailing nine points behind Group I leaders, the Azzurri are under immense pressure to collect maximum points.
After back-to-back qualification failures for the World Cup, Italy cannot afford any more setbacks. With a new head coach at the helm, they aim to put their campaign back on track against an opponent they have historically dominated.
Italy vs Estonia PreviewItaly
New boss Gennaro Gattuso plans to switch back to a four-man defense following the struggles under Spalletti’s system. Gianluigi Donnarumma, now a Manchester City player, will start in goal. Francesco Pio Esposito, Giovanni Fabbian, and Giovanni Leoni are set for their first senior call-ups but may begin on the bench. Up front, Mateo Retegui competes with Moise Kean, Giacomo Raspadori, and the returning Gianluca Scamacca for a starting role.
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Estonia
Estonia head coach Jurgen Henn has named a 26-man squad, though captain Karol Mets misses out through injury. Arsenal-owned goalkeeper Karl Hein, currently at Werder Bremen, will likely feature in goal, with Maksim Paskotsi anchoring the defense. Veteran forward Henri Anier offers experience in attack, but Rauno Sappinen is expected to lead the line as Estonia seek an unlikely upset.
Italy vs Estonia Over/ Under PredictionsTotal Goals Under 2.5 @ +235 as per BetMGM:
Italy are clearly mismatched against Estonia and will be expected to secure a straightforward win. Yet, with the Azzurri’s recent World Cup qualifying struggles – just six goals scored in their previous five matches – and Estonia’s knack for keeping scorelines modest, a low-scoring affair seems plausible. Indeed, Estonia have conceded an average of only two goals per game in qualifiers so far, and bettors are leaning towards the under 2.5 market as a value option.
Italy vs Estonia Player PicksMateo Retegui to score anytime @ -240 as per FanDuel:
One bold betting angle is staking on Mateo Retegui to score at any time. Fresh from a brace for his club Al-Qadisah over the weekend, he arrives with momentum and motivation. With Gennaro Gattuso seeking an offensive spark under new management, Retegui has a strong case to feature prominently – making the -240 odds on his anytime strike look justifiable .
Moise Kean to either score or assist anytime @ -350 as per FanDuel:
Another compelling player-market is Moise Kean to get involved directly – either by scoring or setting up a goal. Kean is in the selection mix alongside Retegui, Raspadori, and Scamacca up front, and with Gattuso reshuffling for a more attacking setup, Kean is primed for impact. The -350 odds reflect his clear likelihood of contributing productively in what is expected to be a controlled Italian performance.
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Italy vs Estonia Predictions
The Azzurri rebounded with a 2-0 win over Moldova to break a winless streak and now face an opponent, Estonia, who have lost four of their last five matches and remain winless in seven head-to-head encounters .
Final Prediction: Italy 2-0 Estonia
Looking at recent form and looming stakes, Italy should edge a confident but not overwhelming 2-0 win. Backed by home advantage and defensive solidity under Gattuso, Italy look set to notch a clean-sheet win.
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