November would be a good time to decide on further interest rate cuts in Poland, Monetary Policy Council Member Przemyslaw Litwiniuk said on Friday, adding they could be reduced by 75 basis points by the end of the first half of 2026.
The National Bank of Poland cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on Wednesday, as most analysts had expected, citing a decline in inflation.
NBP Governor Adam Glapinski said on Thursday that the central bank must be cautious when deciding on further interest rate cuts and consider inflationary risk factors such as loose fiscal policy, rapid economic growth and wage pressures.
Litwiniuk told private radio TOK FM on Friday that in his opinion the Monetary Policy Council could now pause monetary policy easing and that the September decision to cut them was an adjustment move, not a continuation of the cycle.
The bank unexpectedly trimmed its main rate by 25 basis points in July after cutting it by 50 basis points in May. It had previously kept the main rate steady at 5.75% since autumn 2023.
“I think there are a number of uncertainties regarding the development of phenomena potentially affecting the inflation rate,” Litwiniuk said.
He mentioned issues related to fiscal policy, the high rate of wage growth, as well as the government’s proposals to freeze energy prices.
“November is a good time (for a possible rate cut) because it allows for a better assessment,” Litwiniuk said.
In November, the central bank will publish new forecasts for inflation and economic growth.
The MPC member said he could not rule out the possibility of three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of June 2026, “provided there are no complications”.