
The 3 options NASA are considering, per sources:
- Commercial: Of the two options presented in January 2025, NASA could follow the second one, in which the agency would "capitalize on using new commercial capabilities to deliver the lander payload to the surface of Mars." My sources indicate the first option, to leverage "previously flown" technology, is dead. Basically, there would be a commercial partnership, similar to COTS, in which NASA bought a sample return service designed and offered by one or a team of private companies.
- Prize: NASA could offer a prize—say $3 billion to the first company and $1 billion to a second company—for delivering something like 1 kg of Mars rocks and soil back to Earth. NASA has used prizes very sparingly in the past, but this option could appeal to the Trump administration as it would require very little funding up front.
- Humans: Duffy could say something like, "We are not sending a robot to pick up rocks on Mars when we plan to land humans there in a decade." This would effectively cancel any robotic plan with the hope that a human mission will materialize in the not-too-distant future.
https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/09/nasa-found-intriguing-rocks-on-mars-so-where-does-that-leave-mars-sample-return/

3 Comments
4) Proclaim it impossible for Man to complete the task. Within weeks, both countries and companies will be fighting for pole position. We’d get a rock in hand by Q2 ‘26
Maybe China will let you have one of their rocks when they get back?
The way rocket lab is going on with advertisements and renders about how they can return sample cheaply they will win the contract if commercial is chosen.