BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 13. Moody’s
Ratings has affirmed Romania’s long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings at Baa3 while maintaining a negative outlook,
Trend reports
citing Moody’s latest reports.
According to the agency, the decision reflects persistent
implementation risks surrounding the government’s ambitious fiscal
consolidation programme. While fiscal measures adopted in July and
September 2025 have materially improved Romania’s fiscal outlook,
challenges remain in securing political backing, ensuring spending
discipline and meeting revenue-raising targets.
Moody’s noted that the adopted measures – including VAT
increases and freezes on public sector wages and pensions – are
expected to exceed 3 percent of GDP in 2025–2026, helping to curb
the government’s debt trajectory. As a result, Romania’s deficit
forecast for 2026 was revised to 6.1 percent of GDP from a previous
estimate of 7.7 percent. Debt is now projected to stabilise at
around 65 percent of GDP in the coming years.
However, the agency warned that risks remain significant. The
four-party coalition in power may struggle to maintain unity over
fiscal reforms, while the consolidation package could weigh more
heavily on economic growth than expected. Romania’s track record of
weak fiscal management also raises concerns about effective
implementation.
At the same time, the affirmation of Romania’s Baa3 rating is
supported by solid growth potential and comparatively high wealth
levels versus peers. Nonetheless, the country’s credit profile
remains constrained by geopolitical risks tied to its proximity to
the war in Ukraine and governance challenges related to fiscal
policy and corruption control.
Moody’s added that Romania’s long-term local and
foreign-currency ceilings remain unchanged at A2.