Fight against tax evasion – 15 -year analysis of propaganda

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Cento billions Of euros, roughly this is the unsolicited economy of Italy, estimates (because it is estimates) vary annually but always turn around that figure. Behind this figure there are unpaid taxes, unspected incomes, workers without contract, exploitation or in any case around the protections and obligations of every citizen. The areas of the country more prone to the phenomenon is useless to reiterate them.

Obvious conclusion is the need to combat all this by the state, an even more pressing conclusion if you think of the heavy taxation in force on Italian citizens in relation to the services offered and their quality, not only through income tax, but also through the social security contribution and the capital of 0.2% per year on the securities, which involves an burden of healthy economic activity, less investments and above all the minors). Therefore, the proliferation of political parties and groups of interest that loudly ask for the extreme fight against this phenomenon with slogans that yearn to being able to lower the tax burden by paying their own to pay their own, without a distortion, without a distorts, is not surprising.

The tax revenues on the country of the country run around 40-45% (depending on the years and sources) and have always remained constant in the last 10 years, almost half of the economy generated by citizens ends up in the form of taxes at the tax authorities, values ​​that place the country at levels of north-European taxation (Sweden and Finland have completely similar values, but also Belgium or Lussemburg) with however diametrically opposed services: where in Italy: where in Italy There are shortcomings, disservices and delays, in virtuous countries the procedures are leaner, the money is used in an intelligent way or the taxation is less and the citizens are left to the citizens, thanks to the greater salaries, to make up for and manage any shortcomings, the most banal is to do health insurance but the examples would be manifold. From 2013 to today, the Revenue Agency has doubled the annual recovery of the tax evasion, passing from the nefarious years of the crisis of 2011 to today, with dozens of billions of euros more available to the state that should have led to a lowering of taxes for everyone, as a large parts of the political propaganda anelava. As written above, the tax burden has remained stable in the last decade.

ADE

The other side of the medal is public expenditure: if the revenues do not lower, the exits are lowered and consequently the state budget is improved with less use of indebtedness, minor interests on debt, greater investment skills and above all the best capacity for the state to face sudden emergencies (all of us remember the pandemic). However, this thesis is also empty in the light of data, albeit a high public expenditure is not in itself a problem, from 2013 to today, public spending has almost doubled by financing wrong, regressive or useless interventions (do you remember the primroses of Arcuri? The 110% of Giuseppe Conte?) By squaring the earnings that the citizens have sold to the State to provide them with services and infrastructures.

Source mef

Looking at the graphs of public spending and the recovery of the evasion arises a doubt: they seem very similar! Obviously with different absolute values ​​but, except for the two years of pandemic, they have the same trend. Is there a way to investigate and verify this impression?

In statistics there is a metric called “correlation“(You can also find it on Excel) which receives two series of data and returns a number ranging from -1 to +1. If the result is close to -1, then the two series of data tend to move in the opposite way, if the result is around 0, then the two series of data have no correlation, if the result is close to +1, then the two series of data tend to move to unison.

Comparison with Rescale to 100 on the values ​​of 2013

The correlation between recovery of tax evasion and public spending is ~ 0.7. They move practically the same way. At this point the conclusion is clear.

In more than 10 years old parts of the political panorama have fought with extreme strength by skidding the voters in the face the fact that “If only the escape did not exist …“Post-on, then various desired”… we would pay less taxes”, “… there would be doctors”, “… peace in the world“, Etc. at the same time bearers of draconian measures for the contrast of the same, very often measures that they would cost a multiple of what they would bring to the state coffers, which they would have given (and in some cases they gave) enormous powers to the official investigators, all "because if it weren’t there …".

The recovery, however, as published annually by Hades, took place (fortunately) and continues to grow from year to year and yet there is no propagated benefits. Why?

Because what the tax recovery is served has been increased public spending in particular the useless and harmful one without improving the payments/services offered. The various bonuses (monopathies, 80 euros, etc.), the various pension concessions, the one -offspring and so on are a clear demonstration and are attributable to almost every party of the parliamentary arch. It follows that all the political and civic representatives that today continue to skid the recovery of the tax evasion as an end in themselves as the Panacea of ​​the country’s evils are, called in French, taking their voters for the ass because this would always and constantly come (as in the last 15 years) used to finance unproductive expenditure.

The reality is that the way to follow is the cut, linear or selective according to the needs, of public spending, primarily the pension and in any case of the harmful one. An example that does not want to be exhaustive that everyone in Italy can confirm is the complete uselessness of the hundreds and hundreds of municipalities of 2 – 5 – 10 thousand inhabitants: literally 4 roads and 10 street lamps that for some stupid reason continue to have a city council (which must be paid) that spends time discussing whether to make the market on Friday or Wednesday. I remember that already today INPS is in budget deficit and annually are taken from the rates of the Irpef sums to be able to smooth out that hole and pay pensions. Otherwise said: the contributions that each worker pays are not sufficient to pay for pensions in place already today.

Further tightening are completely useless because it would be the equivalent of shooting in an ant with a missile: it is not cost-Effective. Can you imagine 4 Hades’ officials who investigate 6 months on a pensioner who does black chores to then recover a few thousand euros after 3 years of dispute? It’s ridiculous. The evasion must be recovered indirectly, favoring the development of companies (the companies that escape the most are the individual companies and those up to 5 employees), taking the CCNL stops at the time of when a worker passed their lives to scream in the factory bolts, making it convenient and encouraging the payment of taxes (pay 40% of taxes and have the roads with the holes is not the maximum life) and promoting the use of systems) of payment traced.

This is what. Until next time they tell you “if there was no escape” you will know what to answer, the rest is populist and harmful propaganda made to make fun of voters.

Sources: www.agenziaentrate.gov.it ; www.rgs.mef.gov.it ; www.istat.it ; ec.europa.eu/eurostat