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Poland has never had it so good. Taking a brand-new local train on a freshly reopened line recently, I struggled to imagine such luxuries in Britain. Digital payments in shops are years ahead of Germany. From 1990 through 2020, Poland was the world’s second-fastest growing economy, after China. Average Polish incomes have soared, from below Ukraine’s level to about Japan’s. Since the Soviet tanks departed, Poland has enjoyed its longest period of self-rule since 1795.
The only problem, in a country haunted by ancestral traumas: those tanks might be returning. Last week Nato planes shot down Russian drones over Poland. Poles wonder whether they are already fighting an undeclared war with Russia. Determined not to disappear from the map again, Poland now spends 5 per cent of its burgeoning GDP on defence. I saw muscular soldiers strolling around and military jets flying low. Yet I left the Polish elite powwow at the Karpacz Economic Forum in the Lower Silesian mountains wondering, can a society as divided as Poland’s win a war?
Poland’s army is bigger than Britain’s or France’s. Its 216,000 armed-forces personnel — more than double the number of 2014 — are ready to fight alone if the US and western European countries don’t show up for them, the former chief of the army’s general staff, Rajmund Andrzejczak, told me. “We want to fight to the end — to the end of Russia, of course. We have something to defend. Poland is a really good place to live.”
It’s often said that Poland since 1990 has become a western country, but Andrzejczak formulated it differently: it’s now in northern Europe. Its natural allies against Russia are the Baltic and Nordic countries, and its energy connections are largely northern, too. “Poland is the regional leader. You see that in the numbers. That is not my emotion and patriotism.” He added that Poland had joined an elite strategic league: “We are not a Formula 2 country, we are Formula 1 now.”
Yet that brings its own problems: chiefly, recruiting soldiers in an F1 economy. Poles increasingly focus on “middle-class activities” such as travel and “self-actualisation”, says Agnieszka Lichnerowicz, author of the book Idzie wojna? (“War is Coming?”), whose cover is an image of today’s Warsaw destroyed in war. And what if Russia’s attack isn’t military? Precisely because Poland’s army is strong, Vladimir Putin might strike the smaller Baltics. Meanwhile, he’s already launching unarmed attacks on Poland’s weak spot, which is its fractured society.
Poles have somehow emerged from a 30-year economic miracle very distrustful of their elected leaders, and polarised between nativists and liberals. Nativist president Karol Nawrocki routinely vetoes bills of Donald Tusk’s liberal government. When Nawrocki visited Donald Trump recently, he didn’t bring any member of government. Asked why not, his aide, Zbigniew Bogucki, explained: “These people disgraced themselves.” Poland now arguably has two rival foreign policies.
That helps Putin. Though most Poles hate Russia, many devote more energy to hating other Poles. Lichnerowicz remarks that some repost Russian disinformation — for instance, fables about Ukrainian refugees jumping queues for Polish healthcare. Anti-Ukrainian sentiments are easily roused here. “Ukrainians could show us more gratitude,” grumbled deputy prime minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz in Karpacz, and he repeated the Polish trope that one day Ukraine’s army could turn “against us”.
Russia’s biggest strength isn’t its army but its information warfare, says Polish General Leon Komornicki. Poland is the country on Earth most targeted by hacktivism and political cyber attacks, reports Spanish cyber security centre ZIUR. “Some days we have thousands of different attacks,” says a Polish telecoms executive. Russian hackers could switch off Polish pumping stations near the Baltic Sea, causing floods. Or Russia could use terrorism, sabotage of water supplies, or nuclear blackmail.
Last week’s Russian drone attacks (“it could have been a mistake,” said Trump) were probably aimed to test not just Poland’s military, but Polish society. Would Poles blame each other? In a crisis, would most believe or obey their government? Would they trust their intelligence services, still widely regarded as enemies from communist times?
Finland, likewise threatened by Russia, has built its “Security Strategy for Society” on individuals, businesses and civic organisations. Divided Poland relies on its army. But General Komornicki warns: “A military that isn’t backed by society will never win a war.”
Email Simon at simon.kuper@ft.com
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