An AI has achieved 8th place in the Metaculus Cup, a leading competition to forecast near-future events. In 2024 AI only ranked at 300th place.

This is interesting, but I don't know if it's all that significant. The swing towards right-wing authoritarianism makes a lot of the political questions very predictable to answer. Some relating to weather events, I would expect AI to be best at, as they're data crunching exercises.

Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

British AI startup beats humans in international forecasting competition: ManticAI ranked eighth in the Metaculus Cup, leaving some believing bots’ prediction skills could soon overtake experts