Drones Over Norway and Denmark – Information and Estimations

Disclaimer: I am not a military expert of any sort, nor am I Norwegian.

What We Know:
Around 20:30, a group of 3–5 drones was spotted over Copenhagen Airport, causing the redirection of incoming flights and a temporary halt in operations.
Around 00:00, unauthorized drone activity was reported over Oslo Airport, with reports of air raid alerts at a nearby military site.
Two Singaporean nationals are being detained and investigated in connection with the Copenhagen incident. (There is speculation they may have a Russian background, but no official confirmation or information supports this claim.)
Around 00:30, Copenhagen Airport reopened its airspace for incoming and outgoing flights.
A police official told NRK, “In total, there are two to three possible drone sightings, but these have not been verified.”
The communications manager at Oslo Airport told TV2 that no flights would arrive at Oslo Airport until Tuesday morning.
Around 04:00, Oslo Airport reopened its airspace, and traffic returned to normal.

My Personal Opinion and Estimations: More details will emerge when officials provide official statements. However, based on available open-source information:
Last year, approximately 1,400 drones were spotted near Oslo Airport, but those were small, amateur drones. This time, the situation appears more serious, potentially involving foreign state actors.
Some speculate these drones could be Russian “Orlan-10” drones. Why?
The drone spotted over Copenhagen, as seen in a video, had three green lights and one red light, similar to the Orlan-10’s configuration. (It seems the operators wanted at least one drone to be noticed.)
The altitude and speed of the drones align with the Orlan-10’s capabilities. (These drones are challenging for short-range anti-aircraft systems to counter, and using long-range systems to down them is cost-prohibitive; other methods are more effective.)
The Orlan-10 typically operates in groups of 3–5, with each drone assigned a specific mission.
These drones have an operational range of 110–600 km and rely on the GLONASS navigation system (Russia’s GPS equivalent).
Security forces likely have a clearer picture of the drones’ type.
This incident could be a proof-of-concept trial to demonstrate that such drones can reach and potentially attack critical Norwegian infrastructure or to test the boundaries of actions that can be taken without retaliation.

Is Russia Behind These Drones?
No definitive evidence confirms this.
However, recent cyberattacks on three major European airports (Brussels, Berlin, and London) caused disruptions, and there have been recent airspace violations in Poland. This context fuels speculation.
Notably, no drone activity was reported over other neighboring Scandinavian countries like Sweden or Finland, possibly because Denmark and Norway are NATO members.(Although some reports show that these drones were also spotted over Sweden – Sweden and Finland are also in NATO since 2023 and 2024 compared to longstanding membership of Norway in NATO -1949)
An important question is whether another country could benefit from framing Russia and has the capability to carry out such an act. This seems unlikely, but it’s worth considering.
In such a serious and risky situation, jumping to conclusions is unwise, but this incident cannot be taken lightly, as it may signal an expansion of the Ukraine conflict.

Disclaimer: This is not an official statement or analysis, and this post is not intended to cause panic. It is merely a personal opinion and estimation, and I could be wrong about everything. Please take everything in this post with a pinch of skepticism.
The Orlan drones can be launched from various platforms, typically requiring a ground platform and a ground control station. However, they could realistically be operated using a ground antenna with modified specifications, from a nearby submarine, or even follow a preplanned flight path that doesn’t rely on GLONASS but instead uses an optical geographical location system. The drones seen in the Copenhagen video appear larger, which could be due to the filming angle or possibly indicate a larger drone than the Orlan-10.