From 2026-27 all the gases of Central Europe will transit Romania (coming from Azerbaijan/Kazahstan/Turkmenistan)

The Moscow -Baku conflict: a strategic defeat of unprecedented Russia

After the victory of Azerbaijan in the conflict in Karabah and the complete reintegration of the region, the influence of Russia in the area has reduced significantly. Baku, more and more confident in his own strength and support, seems determined to reduce his addiction to Moscow.

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia has entered a new phase, marked by strategic caution and divergent interests, but well masked under diplomatic appearances.

Yesterday, in Dusanbe, the meeting between the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and the leader of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliev began. The fact that the two leaders met shows that, despite the divergences, the communication channels remain open. It is rather a position of positioning than an authentic partnership.

Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan have passed beyond mere diplomatic divergences. Behind the curtain, there is a major geopolitical confrontation, with energy, economic and security implications for the entire Eurasian region. Many analysts wondered what led to this silent, but deep break between the Kremlin and the Baku administration.

For public opinion, the conflict began to be discussed after two tense episodes: the breaking of a civil plane above Groznîi, in December 2024, and the refusal of President Ilham Aliev to participate in the parade of May 9, 2025 in Moscow.

But these were just pretexts. The true cause of the break is the huge loss of influence and money of Russia, generated by the ascension of Azerbaijan as a strategic energy actor on the European market.

📉 Moscow loses money and influence because of the Baku

Russia loses billions of dollars and a huge part of its political influence in Europe, and the Kremlin considers Azerbaijan guilty of this situation.

Russian officials were 100% convinced that Europe will not survive without Russian energy resources and that, despite Western sanctions, the EU countries will continue to buy gas from Gazprom.

But in the carefully calculated plane of the Kremlin, Azerbaijan intervened, with an active energy doctrine and a southern operating gases, which starts from the caspian seas and reaches to Central Europe.

📉 Kremlin underestimated the potential of the Baku

Russian officials assumed that Azerbaijan does not have enough reserves to provide gases to the whole of Europe. Thus, the Kremlin launched misinformation, claiming that the gas delivered by Baku would actually come from Russia.

Russia’s revenues in the European Energy Square amounted to $ 250-300 billion a year. Who, of the Kremlin analysts, has assumed such a disastrous prognosis?

📉 Azerbaijan – Europe’s solution after Ukraine

After the Russia’s war against Ukraine and the imposition of global sanctions on Russian oil and gas, Europe was forced to look for new sources of supply.

Azerbaijan was prepared: from 2020, it provides gas supplies to southern and eastern Europe through the southern corridor.

Baku has proposed to the European Commission access to its own gas, its pipes and stable deliveries. Signed an energy memorandum between Azerbaijan and Brussels

📉 Increasing demand for Azerbaijani gas

Among the states waiting to receive Azer gas are: Germany, Poland, Czech Republic and Ukraine. The latter has already received the first pilot volumes through Hungary.

The European continent takes place a silent energy war between Baku and Moscow, in which Azerbaijan has a devastating score: 12–0 in favor of Azerbaijan.

Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, which were based on Russian gas, will constantly go to Azer gas from 2026-2027.

📉 Strategic transit contracts and reserves

The states involved in the transit of gas are: Azerbaijan, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia. According to British Petroleum company, the reserves identified in the Azeri area of ​​the Caspian Sea include:

🏭 over 2.8 trillion m³ of natural gas 🏭 over 1.6 billion tons of oil 🏭 Only Shah Deniz deposit contains about 1.4 trillion m³ of gases

Azerbaijan completely ensures Georgia’s energy requirement and offers regional energy security. At the same time, it receives hundreds of millions of dollars from the transit of oil, gas and goods within the East -West Middle Corridor, which connects China to Europe and vice versa.

📉 extension to the Middle East

In the summer of 2025, a historical event took place: the signing of a memorandum on the start of gas deliveries from Azerbaijan to Syria.

In preparation is the delivery of Israeli gas through Azerbaijan, within the Tamar project, using the Tanap -Tap -Tapi routes for transport to Central Europe.

In total, 12 countries receive or will receive Azer gases: Turkey, Georgia, Italy, Greece, Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Austria, Germany, Slovakia, Ukraine and Syria.

📉 energy infrastructure bypassing Russia

The projects “Southern Gas Corridor” and “Baku -Tubilisi – Ceyhan” allow the transport of resources without involving Russia.

In Russia, these developments are perceived as direct threats, and the authorities are trying to hit Azerbaijan through reprisals against the Azeria diaspora.

The Russian Energy Minister, Sergei Ţivilev, admitted: “We cannot and we are not able to counteract the penetration of Azerbaijan on the European Energy Market – we do not have enough resources.”

📉 Hard blow: Exxonmobil contract

Another bad news for Russia came on August 7, 2025, when Exxonmobil and Socar signed a contract of $ 20 billion in Washington for the development of new oil and gas deposits off the Azer coasts.

Exxonmobil extracts 30–40 million tonnes of oil annually from the Tengiz deposit in Kazakhstan. It is expected that this oil will be transported by Azerbaijan, completely bypassing Russia and leaving the Caspic Consortium (CPC) and the terminals in Novorossiisk without volume.

📉 Zangezur corridor and losing Russian control in the Caucasus

The opening of the Zangezur corridor, also called the “Trump (Tṙpp) bridge”, completely reduces the influence of Russia on the logistics routes in the South Caucasus. This corridor allows Azerbaijan to diversify road, railway and pipeline communications with Turkey and Europe, without depending on Georgia.

In addition, the American military presence at the borders of Armenia with Iran and Turkey forced the herevan to demand the withdrawal of FSB troops and reduce the Russian presence in the region.

📉 Russia in total defensive

All these evolutions – in which Azerbaijan played a central role – led to a massive recoil for Russia. The energy diversification policy of the Baku has transformed the country into an essential partner for Europe and the Middle East, on which the energy security of some key states in the EU depends directly.

📉 Final party: Russia lost

By the end of 2025, Russia completely lost the European energy market, giving it to Azerbaijan. It is the result of a providing policy of the Baku, which has diversified in time the routes and partners.

📉 What will the conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan end?

It will not end with anything concrete, apart from threats and pressures on the Azera diaspora. Putin will try to repair the relationship, but it’s too late.

Russia lost control over Azerbaijan between 2020 and 2024, first losing control over the karabah and then retreating its troops.

Meanwhile, in Russia I burn refineries and oil terminals. And the population enters autumn and winter without gas, without heat and hopeless.

Gusein samedzade you don’t Sgs