The US and EU restrictions will nevertheless have a heavy impact on India, which is the top buyer of Russian seaborne crude as well as a major exporter of diesel to Europe since the bloc stopped importing Russian diesel in 2023.
India has exported 583,000 bpd of diesel so far this year, around eight per cent of global seaborne volumes, of which 106,000 bpd went to Europe, making India the region’s fourth-largest overseas source of diesel, according to Kpler data. In the face of Western sanctions pressure, Indian refineries have started to rapidly replace Russian Urals crude, which produces high diesel yields.
This should generate stronger demand among refiners for alternative crudes that have similar diesel yields. Such medium-sour grades are produced mostly by Middle Eastern OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq. They have all sharply increased production this year, offering ample alternatives to Russian crude.