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    "We find that experts assign a median 5 percent probability to a large-scale nuclear event by 2045, while superforecasters estimate 1 percent"
    Futurology

    We find that experts assign a median 5 percent probability to a large-scale nuclear event by 2045, while superforecasters estimate 1 percent


    “We find that experts assign a median 5 percent probability to a large-scale nuclear event by 2045, while superforecasters estimate 1 percent”

    https://www.hks.harvard.edu/events/risk-large-scale-nuclear-war-judgmental-forecasting-approach

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    3 Comments

    1. NunoSempere on

      Submission statement: The linked article looks at a particular way of estimating the likelihood of nuclear war. Do results seem reasonable? Does having a probability at all, and if so what would your guess be? What are some good methods to think about the chance of nuclear war? In some sense I do buy the 1 to 5%,

    2. FuturologyBot on

      The following submission statement was provided by /u/NunoSempere:

      —

      Submission statement: The linked article looks at a particular way of estimating the likelihood of nuclear war. Do results seem reasonable? Does having a probability at all, and if so what would your guess be? What are some good methods to think about the chance of nuclear war? In some sense I do buy the 1 to 5%,

      —

      Please reply to OP’s comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1oui7oc/we_find_that_experts_assign_a_median_5_percent/nobu1mr/

    3. talrich on

      Let’s not make a betting market for this one. Nobody should have a financial incentive to raise the probability of a large scale nuclear event.