This is still nothing to do with the current government or their first budget… or so they keep saying.
radiant_0wl on
> Our GDP monthly estimates bulletin, published on 13 November, shows that GDP fell by 0.1% in September 2025, following no growth in August 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in July 2025.
That’s some horrid figures..
> The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 3 2025 was professional, scientific and technical activities which fell by 0.6%. Within this sub-sector, there were falls in five of the eight industries
That’s concerning the as that’s an area of strategic priority and what we was considered world beating in.
Overall the glimmer of hope is that we know the fall in production is largely (not all) related to Jaguar Land Rover hack so that will boost figures next quarter.
H7H8D4D0D0 on
I wonder how the ONS has fudged the numbers this month and what suspicious seasonal adjustment has been made.
We are living in a zero sum economy that is shrinking rapidly per capita with every passing month.
Labour need to be honest with the public that if we ever want meaningful growth it will require deeply painful spending cuts to fund a tax regime that benefits small business and innovation.
We also need to delay net zero commitments to ease energy costs and get their planning reform bill into law.
Voodoopulse on
I’m 40 years old and have never been working full time when things have been good which is really really sad
OkProMoe on
Isn’t this exactly what she wanted by increasing the employers tax?
Jurassic_Bun on
Build Build Build.
Either you build it now and have it or you build it later and you don’t have it but you still need to build it anyway.
You can’t wait for the good days because they won’t come unless you build.
Get HS2 done, build towards energy independence saving money for consumers, businesses and services.
Cut rents on businesses, raise taxes on online shopping companies to help support local businesses and innovation.
Invest in the NHS to improve testing, diagnostic and treatment speed as it’s just throwing money away otherwise.
Decriminalize some recreational drugs freeing up courts, prison and policing as well as drawing in tourism.
End the triple lock, speaks for itself really. Introduce a land value tax.
Build government and council owned flats (not simply as social housing). Use them to undercut the landlords and bring rents down. They have an interest in offering low rent as it allows tenants to partake more in the local economy.
Push for four day weeks giving people more time to partake in the local economy. Encourage later opening hours for businesses so that people can engage in the economy on weekdays, end the ridiculous Sunday hours of businesses and services. Clinics not being open on the weekend is absolute insanity. The countries dogmatic ideological fanaticism for the 9-5 Monday to Friday is insane.
Also subsidies need to come with the government acquiring some ownership of a venture. Stop giving money out with nothing in return, stop building things for no ownership.
Quinn-Helle on
How much has our population increased through legal migration in that same time period?
Bayakoo on
Surely increasing taxes in next budget will leave more disposable money to be spent on the economy /s
LubberwortPicaroon on
Population likely grew by slightly more than 0.1%, meaning this is a real terms recession
Stardustone1 on
What is the margine of error? Probably much more the supposed 0.1% growth
dapperdanmen on
Missed every forecast, absolutely anaemic. But I’m glad the new budget is about to lift the mood
Nob-Biscuits on
Everyone is angry with her but I don’t hear any better solutions, the Tories cut spending for years and it devastated communities, wealth taxes don’t work, NetZero migration would destroy the labour market and we can’t build anything because of all the Nimbys. Face it, we’re fucked.
Loreki on
That’s as good as confirmation that any tax increases at this point will trigger a recession. If people aren’t spending enough to grow the economy now, if you tell them their taxes are going up in April, belts will tighten further and we’ll be into the negative.
JuanFran21 on
These figures might be accurate. But is also worth noting that the ONS (OBR?) have later upwardly revised Q2, Q1 and Q4 2024 growth figures. They seem to consistently understate growth – can see this figure being revised to +0.3% if the pattern holds.
iMissTheDays on
She doesn’t have the skill for this, we need real experts calling the shots, all these politicians do is tinker along ideological lines. But the foundations of the UK economy are rotten and need replacing.
pajamakitten on
People have so little disposable income and that is killing certain sectors. Companies also still have not realised how to improve productivity in employees and are instead doing all they can to make employees miserable. Why are we shocked that the UK has stagnated when those at the top are actively doing everything to encourage stagnation or a recession?
JamesZ650 on
Literally every time these figures are out it’s always different to what the experts expected. Maybe the economy just isn’t as predictable as even those with all the days think it is.
snozberryface on
It will shrink if the suspected budget changes come and we’ll officially be an a recession…. AGAIN
18 Comments
This is still nothing to do with the current government or their first budget… or so they keep saying.
> Our GDP monthly estimates bulletin, published on 13 November, shows that GDP fell by 0.1% in September 2025, following no growth in August 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in July 2025.
That’s some horrid figures..
> The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 3 2025 was professional, scientific and technical activities which fell by 0.6%. Within this sub-sector, there were falls in five of the eight industries
That’s concerning the as that’s an area of strategic priority and what we was considered world beating in.
Overall the glimmer of hope is that we know the fall in production is largely (not all) related to Jaguar Land Rover hack so that will boost figures next quarter.
I wonder how the ONS has fudged the numbers this month and what suspicious seasonal adjustment has been made.
We are living in a zero sum economy that is shrinking rapidly per capita with every passing month.
Labour need to be honest with the public that if we ever want meaningful growth it will require deeply painful spending cuts to fund a tax regime that benefits small business and innovation.
We also need to delay net zero commitments to ease energy costs and get their planning reform bill into law.
I’m 40 years old and have never been working full time when things have been good which is really really sad
Isn’t this exactly what she wanted by increasing the employers tax?
Build Build Build.
Either you build it now and have it or you build it later and you don’t have it but you still need to build it anyway.
You can’t wait for the good days because they won’t come unless you build.
Get HS2 done, build towards energy independence saving money for consumers, businesses and services.
Cut rents on businesses, raise taxes on online shopping companies to help support local businesses and innovation.
Invest in the NHS to improve testing, diagnostic and treatment speed as it’s just throwing money away otherwise.
Decriminalize some recreational drugs freeing up courts, prison and policing as well as drawing in tourism.
End the triple lock, speaks for itself really. Introduce a land value tax.
Build government and council owned flats (not simply as social housing). Use them to undercut the landlords and bring rents down. They have an interest in offering low rent as it allows tenants to partake more in the local economy.
Push for four day weeks giving people more time to partake in the local economy. Encourage later opening hours for businesses so that people can engage in the economy on weekdays, end the ridiculous Sunday hours of businesses and services. Clinics not being open on the weekend is absolute insanity. The countries dogmatic ideological fanaticism for the 9-5 Monday to Friday is insane.
Also subsidies need to come with the government acquiring some ownership of a venture. Stop giving money out with nothing in return, stop building things for no ownership.
How much has our population increased through legal migration in that same time period?
Surely increasing taxes in next budget will leave more disposable money to be spent on the economy /s
Population likely grew by slightly more than 0.1%, meaning this is a real terms recession
What is the margine of error? Probably much more the supposed 0.1% growth
Missed every forecast, absolutely anaemic. But I’m glad the new budget is about to lift the mood
Everyone is angry with her but I don’t hear any better solutions, the Tories cut spending for years and it devastated communities, wealth taxes don’t work, NetZero migration would destroy the labour market and we can’t build anything because of all the Nimbys. Face it, we’re fucked.
That’s as good as confirmation that any tax increases at this point will trigger a recession. If people aren’t spending enough to grow the economy now, if you tell them their taxes are going up in April, belts will tighten further and we’ll be into the negative.
These figures might be accurate. But is also worth noting that the ONS (OBR?) have later upwardly revised Q2, Q1 and Q4 2024 growth figures. They seem to consistently understate growth – can see this figure being revised to +0.3% if the pattern holds.
She doesn’t have the skill for this, we need real experts calling the shots, all these politicians do is tinker along ideological lines. But the foundations of the UK economy are rotten and need replacing.
People have so little disposable income and that is killing certain sectors. Companies also still have not realised how to improve productivity in employees and are instead doing all they can to make employees miserable. Why are we shocked that the UK has stagnated when those at the top are actively doing everything to encourage stagnation or a recession?
Literally every time these figures are out it’s always different to what the experts expected. Maybe the economy just isn’t as predictable as even those with all the days think it is.
It will shrink if the suspected budget changes come and we’ll officially be an a recession…. AGAIN