Griffin Wong previews tonight’s UEFA World Cup qualifying match between Italy and Norway.
As European World Cup qualifying comes to a close, Norway is on the verge of history. Løvene have put together the most dominant qualifying campaign of any European team and will qualify for their first World Cup since 1998 as long as they don’t lose, 9-0, to Italy.
The teams will face off at 2:45 p.m. ET (8:45 p.m. local) at the San Siro in Milan. With any defeat of 8-0 or less, a draw, or a win, Norway will qualify for next summer’s World Cup, while the Azzurri will go through the playoffs for the third straight qualifying campaign. Italy failed to make it to the tournament in each of the previous two iterations.
Italy is a +105 favorite to win and +260 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Løvene are +255 on the Moneyline.
Italy vs. Norway prediction, pick
Norway has the best player in the game and the leading goal-scorer in European qualifications, as Erling Haaland’s 14 goals are double Memphis’ seven. Manchester City’s main man up front has been spectacular, smashing home at least one goal in each of his matches, and he had five goals and three assists in Løvene’s 11-1 thrashing of Moldova in September. He hasn’t been alone, though: Atlético Madrid’s Alexander Sørloth has recorded five goals, as has Rangers star Thelo Aasgaard. Arsenal midfielder and national captain Martin Ødegaard is a big loss, given that he’s the competition’s leading assister despite playing just five matches, but Norway didn’t seem to miss him against Israel, when Antonio Nusa had a pair of assists, or Thursday against Estonia, when Sørloth had two. Løvene have had the most devastating attack in the competition and one of the most impenetrable defenses, with Ørjan Nyland making 14 saves from 18 opportunities. While they’ve had a plus-21 goal difference at home and just a plus-eight difference on the road, it’s hard to argue that they should be huge underdogs this evening.
Italy shouldn’t be underestimated, though. The Azzurri are hot, having won each of their last six qualifying matches, and they managed an utterly dominant road win in Moldova on Thursday that was far more lopsided than the 2-0 scoreline would suggest despite resting several of their most important players, including captain and goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, Inter Milan duo Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolò Barella, and Napoli defender Giovanni Di Lorenzo. Al Qadisiyah striker Mateo Retegui has been in good form, slotting home five goals and distributing four assists, and Fiorentina’s Moise Kean and Atlético’s Giacomo Raspadori have scored at least a trio each. Donnarumma has yet to concede a goal at home and two of the four goals he allowed against Israel in that 5-4 thriller were own goals. All in all, Italy has attempted the seventh-most shots on target and allowed the 21st-fewest — in both cases, it’s been slightly worse than Norway — and it’s healthier, with defender Riccardo Calafiori expected to be potentially available to make his return tonight.
The last time these teams faced off on June 6, it wasn’t particularly close, as Løvene pulled out a 3-0 victory behind goals from Haaland, Sørloth, and Nusa, and while the Azzurri dominated possession in that game, Norway attempted more shots in total and shots on target. That match did take place at at Ulevaal Stadium in Oslo, but Løvene’s home-field advantage is more pronounced in the winter, when they can take advantage of frigid Scandinavian conditions that Southern Europeans are unaccustomed to. Norway has simply been the better team in all phases of the game.
The idea is that Italy is a heavy favorite because it is at home, and there’s no guarantee that either nation will start a very strong side, given the improbability of a 9-0 result. In that case, the Azzurri’s superior depth would probably mean it should win. However, it’s always possible that Løvene will want to put on a show and clinch its historic World Cup berth in style, and the +255 odds are simply too friendly to pass up.
Best Bet: Norway Moneyline (+255)