Today, I’m sharing a brilliant guest post written by a US veteran intelligence analyst, drawing on their experience analysing Egypt’s and Russia’s descent into authoritarianism.
They have asked to remain anonymous to protect themselves and family members. This in itself is a stark judgement on the state of American democracy.
Please read and share.
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For almost 10 years, I served the United States Air Force in linguistics and counter-terrorism. My bachelor’s degree is in Intelligence Studies with a concentration in Terrorism Studies, and I hold additional certifications in United Nations and State Department courses. I wish I had a more positive outlook for the state of affairs in the country I honorably served, but as each day passes bringing new assaults on the guardrails of our democracy, the intelligence analyst in me constantly writes situation reports in my head. They mirror far too closely the situation reports I wrote during my career as Trump and his Administration rapidly transform the United States from a functioning democracy (even if not absent of issues) into a competitive authoritarian regime. Daily, I hear Trump and other members of our government saying the exact same things that I used to translate from the languages of foreign authoritarian and non-secular regimes. Exact same words; just this time in English. Having spent my service career guarding US interests and citizens against the effects of other regimes while also consistently being horrified by the conditions to which the citizens of those regimes are subject, the increasing similarities between former target countries and my country now equally horrify me. In this guest post, I lay out the parallels I find most obvious, but it is in no way an exhaustive selection.
The second Trump Administration now bears a close resemblance to the authoritarian natures of Egyptian governance while also borrowing similarities to Putin’s Russia. Removing the American Constitution from wh.gov, the official White House website, on Inauguration Day – the very first day of Trump’s second but nonconsecutive term – was a chilling and foretelling act of non-violent aggression against US citizens and residents.
The core characteristics of authoritarian governments include concentrated power in the leader, suppression of opposition, weakened democratic norms, limited civil liberties, use of fear or violence, and a narrow ideology. Governments do not transform into their authoritarian versions overnight: the erosions occur slowly but methodically. Egypt’s al-Sisi rose to power on the heels of a 2013 coup, but “won” elections in 2014 and 2018, the latter of which was characterized by low voter turnout and voter intimidation, opposition suppression, and the use of state resources to fund media propaganda and disinformation. The Trump Administration has engaged in similar activities sending law enforcement, the national guard, and/or ICE and CBP agents to November 2025 special election centers; Trump’s executive orders openly seek to unilaterally revoke or diminish First Amendment rights; White House Deputy Chief of Staff and US Homeland Security advisor Stephen Miller has multiple times declared that democrats are domestic terrorists; and the Administration has committed multiple Hatch Act violations that have occurred in the United States, for instance by using airports as platforms to blame Democrats for the shutdown. The encroachments on democratic processes and laws are not the only similarities to Egypt. Also like Egypt, there is an increasing disregard for the rights of women, the LGBTQ community, and immigrants.
Where the US differs from Egypt, but is growing more similar to Putin’s Russia, is in its oligarchy. The influence of the Russian oligarchy over its government is widely acknowledged. Putin did not eliminate the oligarchy on his rise to power, but instead bargained with them in exchange for their support. The US has seen a rise in oligarchy over recent decades that has culminated in Trump openly manipulating policy, foreign affairs, and government oversight through the installation of and personally-enriching agreements with the world’s and nation’s powerful and ultra-wealthy figures. Elon Musk contributed $270 million to Trump’s 2024 election campaign. This donation secured for Musk not only a directorship at the head of the Department of Government Efficiency but also allowed him access to eliminate competition for government contracts and bolster his own contract awards. Media tycoons such as Jeff Bezos (The Washington Post), Mark Zuckerberg (Meta), and the Murdoch family (Fox News), have enjoyed a lack of oversight in the expansion of their corporate empires. In return, they not only censor much negative Trump coverage, but also provide platforms for disinformation campaigns that favor the Administration. Corporate executives and political appointees and allies enjoy free rein to grow their own wealth. For instance, Trump has signed executive orders dissolving the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has weakened protections for medical debt, weakened federal Unions, and has placed someone who doesn’t support expanded civil rights at the top of the civil rights agency.
Where Trump’s authoritarian oligarchy differs from Putin’s is that it hasn’t (yet) engaged in open and obvious execution of political opponents. In Russia, the creation and use of poisons to kill opponents is a tactic that dates back to the Soviet era and is one that Putin has employed for more than 20 years. Defenestrations (falling or being pushed from a window) are also occasional methods to rid himself of opposition. Conservative politicians, pundits, and Trump himself have, however, openly referred to opponents as “domestic terrorists.” This is an extremely dangerous accusation due to how the US deals with terrorism and the Administration’s increasing disregard for habeas corpus (due process under the law). Furthermore, some Trump officials and Republicans have openly called for public executions, revocation of citizenship, and imprisonment of liberals without recourse, in addition to targeting the livelihoods of opposition. These departures from fair and open democracy also characterize al-Sisi’s reign in Egypt.
Perhaps the most distressing parallel is to the fascist nationalism of 1930s Europe. I write this as an American citizen not because I am not afraid to write it, but despite being afraid to write it. This is also the most personally affecting parallel, as a veteran who grew up with a grandfather who fought in WW2. Trump’s Administration verbally and physically attacks Mexicans, other darker-skinned populations, and Muslims as “vermin,” “violent criminals,” “illegals” and other slurs. ICE and Border Patrol agents have been documented with video evidence of brutally attacking and apprehending non-white populations with no regard for their status as residents or citizens. Trump’s political appointees attempt to criminalize dissent and spread disinformation about opponents, which in turn incites escalations of political division and unrest from the government and also among citizens. The Nazi regime was characterized not only as authoritarian, but also as chaotic in its upending of polite society and unsupportive of basic human rights – traits easily applied to MAGA with its fervent use of provocative nationalistic symbols, active disregard for political and social norms, increasing acceptance of violence towards fellow residents and citizens, abdication of democracy’s characteristic balance-of-power, and willful ignorance to the economic damage wrought by misuse of state resources and bad fiscal policy.
The United States is in trouble – and as the world’s pre-eminent superpower, no one is coming to save us. Saving the US will have to be an inside job for which time is quickly running out. The current administration bears more parallels to foreign authoritarian regimes than to the US’s own traditional values of liberal democracy and checks and balances on power. We are a young nation, which is both a blessing and a curse. The US is nimble and malleable because it is not afflicted with centuries and millennia of complicated history to unravel to effect change. But also the citizenry has never directly experienced any political system other than democracy, which makes us slow to recognize that ours, like any other democracy, will break if pushed too far. The US is already uncomfortably close to Egypt’s current government and quickly bearing resemblance to Russia’s.
America’s greatest danger is not realizing that you can’t vote your way out of an authoritarian government once it has been established, especially a fascist authoritarian oligarchic government. Prevention is better than cure and the midterm elections in 2026 are very realistically our last chance to salvage our democracy.