Date: Wednesday, 26 November at 11.30am AEDT
The first complete monthly consumer price index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, 26 November, marking the transition from the quarterly CPI and the partial monthly CPI indicator to the new full monthly CPI as Australia’s headline inflation measure.
From this release onward, the monthly CPI indicator will no longer be produced. The complete monthly CPI provides more comprehensive data, bringing Australia in line with all other G20 economies.
There is debate about whether next week’s release should be compared with quarterly CPI or the old monthly indicator. While neither comparison is perfect, the Q3 results provide the clearest benchmark.
In Q3 2025, consumer price inflation came in hotter than expected. Headline CPI rose 1.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), lifting the annual rate to 3.2% YoY from 2.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred inflation measure, the trimmed mean, rose 1.0% quarter on quarter, lifting the annual rate to 3.0% YoY from 2.7%, the first increase since December 2022.
Following this, the RBA kept the cash rate on hold at 3.60% at its November Board meeting. The Bank noted that although inflation has fallen substantially from its 2022 peak, recent increases were partly due to the removal of electricity rebates in several states.
Some of the upward pressure is considered temporary, although revised RBA forecasts show trimmed mean inflation rising to 3.2% in the first half of 2026 before easing to 2.7% by December 2026.
The preliminary expectation is for headline CPI to rise to 3.4%. No trimmed mean forecast is available yet.
The Australian interest rate market is pricing in 2 basis point (bp) of easing for December, with around 14bp of cuts expected by May 2026.
AU all groups CPI and trimmed mean chart